Bell to the Jets

[*michaelsean*]

(03-13-2019, 02:42 PM)George Cantstandya Wrote: I suck at math (and I not a rapper) but lets see if I can figure this out based on potential earnings.  If I mess it up don't get snotty with me.  :)

I'll leave the guaranteed money out for this part and will explain that later.  I'm basing this on playing 4 years of pay since that is what the Jets contract is for:

The Steelers offer was $70 million over 5 years ($14 million a year).  So he would earn a total of $56 million over the first 4 years of the contract.  But he didn't sign and is now $14 million in the red so to speak due to not playing last year.

He will earn $52.5 over 4 years ($13,125,000 a year) if he plays out his contract with the Jets.  $56 million (4 years pay under the Steelers contract) - $52.5 million (Jets contract) = $3.5 million less he will earn over the next 4 years if he plays out his contract. 

With the $14 million he is already short from not playing last year plus the $3.5 million he is getting payed less over the next 4 years than if he had accepted the Steelers offer he would end up with $17.5 million less by the end of the 4 years.  To put it more simply $70 million - $52.5 million = $17.5 million.

Now about the guaranteed money:

He is making $2 million more ($35 million) guaranteed than the Steelers offer ($33 million) guaranteed. So if he suffers a career ending injury, gets cut, or for some other reason can't play in the early years of his contract with the Jets he made the right choice as he will earn $2 million more from guarantees as compared to if the same thing happened with the Steelers.  However, say he makes it 3 years into his contract and then gets cut he loses money again because he is getting paid less per year than he would have been with the Steelers.  $42 million total earnings based on 3 years with the Steelers  as opposed to $39.375 million with the Jets.

Now let's look at earning the money back he has lost from not playing last year and signing a lower contract from what the Steelers offered:

Again with the above assumptions about playing the full length of the contract Bell will end up with $17.5 less 4 years from now by not accepting the Steelers offer.  

Basically he will have to hope that year off gave him extra years after his current contract where he can still play well enough to get a fairly big new contract. That or hope he can play even longer getting paid at the non-elite level / average level . It depends on his health and how well he ages.  By then he will be 31 years old.  I think in the best case scenario it would take at least 2 years as I don't see a 31 year old RB making $17.5 million a year.  However given his age by then probably closer to 3 years and that's just to break even based on his potential earning from the Steelers offer.  To make more than his potential earning from the Steelers he's probably going to have to hope to play until he is at least 34 years old.

Either way it's still a loss for a few reasons.  For one, he will have to play longer than he may want to. Secondly, consider the year of lost money from the $14 million last year that could have been put in to investments or could be earning interest for a year.

In summary, he may not ever fully recoup what he could have potentially earned had he accepted the Steelers offer last year.  He gambled and ended up leaving a lot of potential earnings on the table.  Also not my I did not include any potential bonuses he may earn and based it on base salary. For example it is reported that his Jets contract has a max value of $61 million.  

I probably messed something up in my post.  Like I said I math is certainly not my strong point  

∞ would have sufficed. (Something I learned today. Holding alt and typing 236 on the number pad gives you infinity.)