03-15-2019, 01:45 PM
Mixed in with all of the anger and frustration over free agency I'm seeing phrases like "worst in the NFL", "expansion team", and "tank", but can we just actually look at our roster for a second and reflect on this? Because I think that people are vastly exaggerating just how bad this roster actually is...
Offense -
QB: Andy Dalton*, 21 TDs to 11 INTs last year, was on pace for 3700 yards, has had a good-to-great career here despite naysayers
WR1: AJ Green*, was on pace for 81 catches and 1200 yards last season, Hall of Fame caliber player
WR2: Tyler Boyd*, 76 catches, 1028 yards, despite missing 2 games last year
RB1: Joe Mixon*, 1168 yards, averaging 4.9 a carry, led the AFC in rushing. Also had 43 catches for almost 300 yards.
RB2: Gio Bernard*, shifty runner and good receiver, averaged over 4.6 a carry in starts last season.
TE: CJ Uzomah*, not great, but still had 43 receptions for 439 yards while playing hurt (18th in the league in yards). The rest of our TEs are not sorted out yet, but I think they'll bring back Tyler Eifert*, and wee know what he can do if healthy. I'll take those 2.
OL: Cordy Glenn and Clint Boling* were fine. Billy Price* struggled as a rookie, so you give him a little leeway there. Alex Redmond* and Bobby Hart were not good. Hopkins played well as a backup last year, and Westerman has his fans while buried in the depth chart.
Defense -
DL: Still IMO the strongest position group on the team - you've got Atkins* and Dunlap*, and then young guys who have shown potential like Hubbard*, Willis*, and Lawson*. Andrew Billings* was graded as the most improved player on the team last year and played well. Glasgow* and Washington appear to provide solid depth at DT.
Secondary: William Jackson* is really, really good, and if last year was a disappointment it's primarily because of how high expectations were going in. Tyler Bates* had a great rookie year. Shawn Williams* is solid. Dre Kirkpatrick* is... well, let's go with serviceable. There's isn't much behind any of these guys.
Linebacker: If DL is the strongest position group, then this is by far the weakest. Vontaze Burfict* appears to be a shell of himself if he can even stay on the field. Nick Vigil* appears to be average, not necessarily someone you'd want starting. Preston Brown was hurt all of last year and has detractors, but he has led the NFL in tackles before as well. They don't have much behind these three, either.
So what does this tell me?
1) That no team with that much talent at the offensive skill positions is going to be the "worst in the league" or "expansion" level.
2) That since every player marked with a * was drafted by this front office, they're nowhere near as clueless as people like to pretend.
3) That the primary needs to address are linebacker, the right side of the OL, and TE (assuming they don't re-sign Eifert). I think these are what they grab with their first few picks.
4) That if you're planning to address those in the draft, the main focus in free agency should be depth, particularly in the secondary and wide receiver.
What the responses will be:
1) "Yeah, but these guys won 6 games last year." Would you say that is solely a product of the talent (many of whom got hurt, remember)?
2) "If those defensive guys are so good, why did they finish dead last in the league last year in defense?" Mostly coaching, IMO, and you can see that since they improved as soon as they ditched their DC. I believe the old expression that players and units generally "play to the back of their cards", so to speak, so I'll chalk it up as an outlier for now.
3) "Do you really think these guys have a shot next year?" Maybe, depending on if certain things fall the right way. I'm not writing them off just yet.
4) "Homer!" Do you really deny the talent this team has at the offensive skill positions and defensive lines? I've acknowledged where they need help, but it's not exactly everywhere on the field either. They have some real strengths out there.
Offense -
QB: Andy Dalton*, 21 TDs to 11 INTs last year, was on pace for 3700 yards, has had a good-to-great career here despite naysayers
WR1: AJ Green*, was on pace for 81 catches and 1200 yards last season, Hall of Fame caliber player
WR2: Tyler Boyd*, 76 catches, 1028 yards, despite missing 2 games last year
RB1: Joe Mixon*, 1168 yards, averaging 4.9 a carry, led the AFC in rushing. Also had 43 catches for almost 300 yards.
RB2: Gio Bernard*, shifty runner and good receiver, averaged over 4.6 a carry in starts last season.
TE: CJ Uzomah*, not great, but still had 43 receptions for 439 yards while playing hurt (18th in the league in yards). The rest of our TEs are not sorted out yet, but I think they'll bring back Tyler Eifert*, and wee know what he can do if healthy. I'll take those 2.
OL: Cordy Glenn and Clint Boling* were fine. Billy Price* struggled as a rookie, so you give him a little leeway there. Alex Redmond* and Bobby Hart were not good. Hopkins played well as a backup last year, and Westerman has his fans while buried in the depth chart.
Defense -
DL: Still IMO the strongest position group on the team - you've got Atkins* and Dunlap*, and then young guys who have shown potential like Hubbard*, Willis*, and Lawson*. Andrew Billings* was graded as the most improved player on the team last year and played well. Glasgow* and Washington appear to provide solid depth at DT.
Secondary: William Jackson* is really, really good, and if last year was a disappointment it's primarily because of how high expectations were going in. Tyler Bates* had a great rookie year. Shawn Williams* is solid. Dre Kirkpatrick* is... well, let's go with serviceable. There's isn't much behind any of these guys.
Linebacker: If DL is the strongest position group, then this is by far the weakest. Vontaze Burfict* appears to be a shell of himself if he can even stay on the field. Nick Vigil* appears to be average, not necessarily someone you'd want starting. Preston Brown was hurt all of last year and has detractors, but he has led the NFL in tackles before as well. They don't have much behind these three, either.
So what does this tell me?
1) That no team with that much talent at the offensive skill positions is going to be the "worst in the league" or "expansion" level.
2) That since every player marked with a * was drafted by this front office, they're nowhere near as clueless as people like to pretend.
3) That the primary needs to address are linebacker, the right side of the OL, and TE (assuming they don't re-sign Eifert). I think these are what they grab with their first few picks.
4) That if you're planning to address those in the draft, the main focus in free agency should be depth, particularly in the secondary and wide receiver.
What the responses will be:
1) "Yeah, but these guys won 6 games last year." Would you say that is solely a product of the talent (many of whom got hurt, remember)?
2) "If those defensive guys are so good, why did they finish dead last in the league last year in defense?" Mostly coaching, IMO, and you can see that since they improved as soon as they ditched their DC. I believe the old expression that players and units generally "play to the back of their cards", so to speak, so I'll chalk it up as an outlier for now.
3) "Do you really think these guys have a shot next year?" Maybe, depending on if certain things fall the right way. I'm not writing them off just yet.
4) "Homer!" Do you really deny the talent this team has at the offensive skill positions and defensive lines? I've acknowledged where they need help, but it's not exactly everywhere on the field either. They have some real strengths out there.
