03-23-2019, 04:17 PM
(03-23-2019, 12:50 PM)Shake n Blake Wrote: terrible deals like Redskins/Albert Haynesworth are pretty rare. Usually 1 guy gets massively overpaid per off-season. Sometimes none. Sometimes people think teams overpaid, but then come to realize the market has changed due to cap increases, etc.
When you examine most of these deals in hindsight, they weren't so bad, and sometimes they work out quite well.
Numbers say you are wrong. Over half of the players who sign 2 year deals are cut after one season. One-third of players who sign 3 year deals are cut after one year. One-fourth of players who sign 4 year deals are cut after one season. A very high percentage of free agents are busts with their new teams.
The Ringer studied every multiyear free-agent contract in Spotrac’s database signed from 2011, the start of the most recent collective bargaining agreement, to 2015—a total of 663 deals. This data focuses solely on contracts signed during free agency, so it doesn’t account for rookie contracts, contract extensions, or players who re-signed with their team before becoming unrestricted free agents. It also excludes one-year free-agent deals.
The results were staggering: A player who signs a five-year deal has better odds of lasting one year (14.7 percent) than he does of lasting five years (13.7 percent). Players who sign four-year contracts in free agency have the exact same odds of lasting one year on the deal (23.1 percent) as lasting four years. Players on three-year contracts have roughly the same odds of the deal ending in one full season or less (34.3 percent) as they do of lasting the full term (36.2 percent). Less than half of players who sign two-year deals last two years (45.8 percent), and one-sixth don’t even make it through the first year. If time is money, in the NFL both are relative.
