05-21-2019, 03:36 PM
(05-21-2019, 02:44 PM)PAjwPhilly Wrote: Yes it most certainly can and most certainly does. For example...I flip a coin twice. I get heads and heads. Thus, I have a 100% heads rate. If I increase the sample size to say 1,000... I wont see a 100% heads rate.
However... you are correct, it didn't matter. Our sample size was comparable to the rest of the NFL (which I was suggesting it might have been well below average). Also those links are huge but I am going to check them out. Why didn't our coaches recognize this and just go for it on 4th down if our line was on a hot-streak??
72.5% was 19th in the league... why does this chart have "games played" by some teams at 13, 14, 15, & 16? Do they not have data for games (that isn't professional)? Also the Giants lead the league in this stat with 90% (30 total plays but only 13 games). Missing data kinda makes this unusable to me. But what do I matter, lol...
Sorry, but those stats were not correct. They included both runs and passes. Here are the numbers for just running plays.
League average number of runs on 3rd or 4th and 1 or 2 was 27.5. Bengals had 24 and converted 18. There 75% conversion rate was 9th in the league.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&player_id_hint=&player_id_select=&player_id=&idx=&role=&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_location=&game_result=&game_day_of_week=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter%5B%5D=1&quarter%5B%5D=2&quarter%5B%5D=3&quarter%5B%5D=4&quarter%5B%5D=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=00&minutes_min=00&seconds_min=00&down%5B%5D=3&down%5B%5D=4&yds_to_go_min=1&yds_to_go_max=2&yards_min=-99&yards_max=99&field_pos_min_field=team&field_pos_min=&field_pos_max_field=team&field_pos_max=&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_min=&end_field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_max=&type%5B%5D=RUSH&is_complete=&is_sack=&include_kneels=&no_play=N&is_first_down=&is_turnover=&is_scoring=&turnover_type%5B%5D=interception&turnover_type%5B%5D=fumble&score_type%5B%5D=touchdown&score_type%5B%5D=field_goal&score_type%5B%5D=safety&margin_min=&margin_max=&rush_direction%5B%5D=LE&rush_direction%5B%5D=LT&rush_direction%5B%5D=LG&rush_direction%5B%5D=M&rush_direction%5B%5D=RG&rush_direction%5B%5D=RT&rush_direction%5B%5D=RE&pass_location%5B%5D=SL&pass_location%5B%5D=SM&pass_location%5B%5D=SR&pass_location%5B%5D=DL&pass_location%5B%5D=DM&pass_location%5B%5D=DR&order_by=yards
Numbers for runs inside the 2 yard line were already correct. Bengals tied for 4th in the league converting 66.7% (8 of 12)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/play_finder.cgi?request=1&match=all&player_id_hint=&player_id_select=&player_id=&idx=&role=&year_min=2018&year_max=2018&team_id=&opp_id=&game_type=R&playoff_round=&game_location=&game_result=&game_day_of_week=&game_num_min=0&game_num_max=99&week_num_min=0&week_num_max=99&quarter%5B%5D=1&quarter%5B%5D=2&quarter%5B%5D=3&quarter%5B%5D=4&quarter%5B%5D=5&minutes_max=15&seconds_max=00&minutes_min=00&seconds_min=00&down%5B%5D=0&down%5B%5D=1&down%5B%5D=2&down%5B%5D=3&down%5B%5D=4&yds_to_go_min=&yds_to_go_max=&yards_min=-99&yards_max=99&field_pos_min_field=opp&field_pos_min=2&field_pos_max_field=opp&field_pos_max=1&end_field_pos_min_field=team&end_field_pos_min=&end_field_pos_max_field=team&end_field_pos_max=&type%5B%5D=RUSH&is_complete=&is_sack=&include_kneels=&no_play=N&is_first_down=&is_turnover=&is_scoring=&turnover_type%5B%5D=interception&turnover_type%5B%5D=fumble&score_type%5B%5D=touchdown&score_type%5B%5D=field_goal&score_type%5B%5D=safety&margin_min=&margin_max=&rush_direction%5B%5D=LE&rush_direction%5B%5D=LT&rush_direction%5B%5D=LG&rush_direction%5B%5D=M&rush_direction%5B%5D=RG&rush_direction%5B%5D=RT&rush_direction%5B%5D=RE&pass_location%5B%5D=SL&pass_location%5B%5D=SM&pass_location%5B%5D=SR&pass_location%5B%5D=DL&pass_location%5B%5D=DM&pass_location%5B%5D=DR&order_by=yards
