Final WR's

[BengalChris]

(06-08-2019, 10:38 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: It's early I know, still need to see TC and preseason games. But who you think makes the final cut ? Usually 6 make the 53 and then probably at least 1 on the PS.

We know the locks: AJ, Boyd, and Ross. Who are the final 3 and PS ?

Ventell Bryant - R
Cody Core - 4
Alex Erickson - 4
Josh Malone - 3
Stanley Morgan - R
Hunter Sharp - 1
Auden Tate - 2
Kermit Whitfield - 1
Damion Willis - R

I'd say there's a real good chance Alex Erickson makes it, I'm not sure I'd call him a lock ?

I've always thought Josh Malone was gonna develop into a good 4th WR but thus far he's not really produced.

Of course ST always figures into final couple guys.

Who's your final 3 to make the cut ? Who makes the PS ?

Whoever the final 3 WRs are I sure hope they are players who can make plays if AJ or Boyd miss time.

Here's an interesting stat from 2018 that I had to calculate from the raw numbers. Percentage of targets that went for a 1st down.

Tyler Boyd 54 1st downs on 108 targets for 50.0%
AJ Green 37 1st downs on 77 targets for 48.1%
Cody Core 7 1st downs on 28 targets for 25.0%
Alex Erickson 7 1st downs on 29 targets for 24.1%
John Ross 13 1st downs on 58 targets for 22.4%
Josh Malone 1 1st down on 5 targets for 20.0%
Auden Tate 2 1st downs on 12 targets for 16.7%

Targeting Green and Boyd delivers a 1st down about half the time. The rest of the guys it take 4 or more targets to get a 1st down, which sucks cause you only have 4 downs.

The next interesting thing is to remove TDs. TDs scored by the offense count as 1st downs. So if we want to get an idea of how a receiver plays on most of the field we can use 1st downs minus TDs and get how many 1st downs the player contributed on the drive.

Tyler Boyd 54-7=47 1st downs on 108-7=101 targets for 46.5% (every 2.15 throws resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)

AJ Green 37-6-31 1st downs on 77-6=71 targets for 43.7% (every 2.29 throws resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)
Cody Core 7-1=6 1st downs on 28-1=27 targets for 22.22% (every 4.5 throws resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)
Alex Erickson 7-1=6 1st downs on 29-1=28 targets for 21.4% (every 4.67 throw resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)
Josh Malone 1-0=1 1st down on 5-0=5 targets for 20.0% (every 5 throws resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)
Auden Tate 2-0=2 1st downs on 12-0=12 targets for 16.7% (every 5.99 throws resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)
John Ross 13-7=6 1st downs on 58-7=51 targets for 11.8% (every 8.47 throws resulted in a 1st down that was not a TD)

Now this isn't an entirely fair calculation because we don't know how many of the targets were in or near the endzone that didn't result in a 1st down or TD, but it does tell us about how many throws to the receiver it takes to get a 1st down out of him.

But we can see, once again, that after Green and Boyd we didn't have a good chance of getting 1st downs targeting the other WRs.

Next we have a stat I didn't need to calculate from the raw numbers, catch %:

Tyler Boyd 76 catches on 108 targets for 70.4%
Alex Erickson 20 catches on 29 targets for 69.0%
AJ Green 46 catches on 77 targets for 59.7%
Cody Core 13 catches on 28 targets for 46.4%
John Ross 21 catches on 58 targets for 36.2%
Auden Tate 4 catches on 12 targets for 33.3%
Josh Malone 1 catch on 5 targets for 20.0%

Since every WR (except for Green) had the same QBs for the season you can erase QB incompetence from the stats above. They all had to deal with the same QBs.

My opinion about this is:

1. Malone and Tate should be done for with the Bengals unless they somehow show renewed skill and competence for the game of football during training camp.

2. Any WR not named Green or Boyd needs to improve significantly over 2018.

3. Erickson was the most underutilized of the WRs on the team. His high catch percentage and low 1st down percentage means we might be able to get more out of him if we ran him on deeper routes. He is capable.

4. Ross has really good numbers in the redzone and really bad number outside of it. To have to throw to him 8.47 times to get a 1st down out of him means why bother. This area of his game is one he should be working on improving every day from here on out. And just to repeat, he had the same QBs that Boyd, Erickson, Core, Tate and Malone had all season, so just realize that when you hear it was QB competence that cause Ross to have a poor catch % that you are being fed BS.