Moving Forward: My Thoughts on Andy, AJ + Co.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(09-19-2019, 03:07 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: It's a pretty self explanatory title, but to explain further; here are my thoughts on various players and my opinions on the best approach moving forward with them. I would love to hear your thoughts too; on these guys, any others, and/or just the general approach from this day on. Discussion and debate is always welcome, just try not to kill eachother over some of these talking points.  Fwiw, I will be doing these in parts, just to clean it up a little and make for easier discussion.  

And here we go...

Andy Dalton


The man, the myth, the legend. The name that puts asses in seats around these parts; a mortal man who has his own dedicated forum here on JN, and the QB who has probably caused quit a few Thanksgiving tables to become heated enough to be more uncomfortable than current politics...

                  You love him, you hate him, you can't stop talking about him... Andy MF'n Dalton!


--- Not only do I keep this guy, I resign him to a new deal. I extend him. NOW. The sooner the better.


Yeah, you heard that right. I'm sure this opinion is bound to create the most discussion (Why we're leading off with him).  Let me explain my thoughts here a little:

The biggest thing to consider here (IMHO) is who are you going to replace him with, and what will be their cost?

See, here's the deal; I've personally never been a fan of paying a high priced veteran FA QB. NEVER.  It's almost always an act of desperation, and there's always a reason said QB was allowed to leave their former team.  Usually it's because they're not that good. And yet almost always you overpay. (See Cousins, Kirk; Smith, Alex; Foles, Nick)

Very few of these vet types elevate your QB play into the top tier , and rarely are they long-term solutions.  Most often you pay a huge premium because your current situation is a total mess, hoping and praying that a mid level guy maybe takes that next step, and/or is good enough to pull your whole team up a notch.  The problem is the rarely work their way into elite status, they're never young and full of untapped potential, yet your left paying a rate similar rate to guys that are elite, and/or are signing a potential driven, 2nd contract.

So here's the thing; most vet QB's allowed to hit the market are pretty average. We have average now. Argue all you want about whether you think he belongs in the 7-12 range, 16-20, whatever.  You basically have your great QB's, really good QB's, bad to awful QB's and then a huge chunk somewhere in the middle.  From like 7 or 8 to 22 or so it's just a clusterfrack of similarly capable QB's.  Andy is somewhere in that middle.

What you can find in FA, at a good value, are what I, and many others, like to call Band-Aids. Stop-gaps. Guys, vets you can bring in that are decent enough to give you a chance to win, while you search for that guy for the future.  These players generally see mid-level contracts, short in years, with manageable guarantees should you cut bait.

Guys, that's where I put a guy like Andy Dalton now, whether he's in house or not.  He's on that level, of that of a band-aid, stop gap QB.  That doesn't mean I want him long-term, and it doesn't mean I think he's a great QB. It just means I think he's capable veteran.

I'm of the opinion that signing a big FA is stupid, and that we won't find anyone better than Andy as a cheaper option in that mid tier range. So that leaves us with going the route of drafting are next QB.   And the beauty of rookie deals, even first round deals is they're cheap, and you've got a guy locked in to a 4-5 year deal.  Pairing Andy with even a first round rookie deal is more than manageable financially.

One of my biggest complaints with this franchise has been their lack of investment into the backup QB position. I've griped pretty much since Kitna left.  Jordan Palmer was an absolute embarrassment, and a blatant display of both nepotism and laziness.  Guys like Leflevor, Josh Johnson, Driscoll... Turd, turd, turd.  McCarron may have been adequate, but as soon as investment was needed to be made he was out. 

It's a pretty damn important position, and there is nothing wrong with investing in a safety net, should your guy godown.  There's no reason to sacrifice an entire season, just because you were  either too lazy or too cheap to find a better backup than a Jordan Palmer or Josh Johnson.

So here's where I finally get to the point (Sorry!!!); What would I do?

I sign Andy to a short term extension. And I do it now, early, because it gives us a great deal of leverage.  The exact years aren't as important as are the cap hits and guaranteed dollars. But just for an example; A 2 or 3 year extension at about 12-14 per, with the first full season guaranteed, and sizable roster bonuses the following years.

Andy is not going to see a big deal once his deal is up, he's just not. While you think he might be on par with Foles, he won't see that type of deal once 2021 rolls around.  Not to mention, he's getting his money now instead of 18 months out, and it's coming from a franchise that has been loyal and more gracious to him than most would have been. So I think, could be wrong, but I think, it's a fair, and reasonable deal for both parties.

So where does that leave us (if done)?

Well, you now have Andy locked up for the next 3-4. You also have the ability to cut bait early, if a couple years in if it's apparent his replacement has been found.  You would have him at a rate similar to that of now, at less than the starting QB veteran average, and at an amount and length that does not hinder you in any way from drafting and resigning a kid coming in via the draft.

To me, that sounds about the best you can do right now.  Like I said earlier, why unload the money truck for a vet in FA, who may not even be much of an improvement?  Why look at Band-Aids when you basically already have one right, here right now?  Why draft someone number 1, then invest little to nothing in their backup should he get injured or bust out?


Invest in the position as a whole, look to the draft for top tier talent, and perhaps even develop in house.  And in the meantime, invest elsewhere. OL, LB, DL, etc.  Do NOT, do NOT overpay for a vet, and do NOT go cutting bait with your only QB has meaningful experience!!!  I don't care if you draft Tua at #1 or not. Andy Dalton still has immense value in that scenario.


Lastly,  and I really can't understate this, I'm not sure you could ask for a better mentor or vet presence than Andy Dalton?  What makes Andy an average, capable starting caliber QB is certainly not sheer talent.  It's a knowledge of the game and what he's asked to do. And it's work ethic too. The guy works hard and understands the position. He's not just skating by on arm strength and/or athleticism.

I think he makes for a great teacher, and role model for a young guy coming into the league.  He's great in the locker-room, great in the community, and seemingly works extremely hard.  What better type of guy for a young guy to mirror?  He's an everage starter, and makes for a great backup. The point is, he serves a lot of potential roles, which in turn allows for flexibilty in approach.

And that's why, after all of that, I extend him. It's not as simple as just moving on immediately and automatically getting better immediately.  It doesn't work that way, or everyone would do.  He still has value, and I think he needs to be here beyond next season.

Just my .02.  

Well thought out, and I agree. The reason you get a deal done now, is so you can get a dicount rate. I'd sign a similar deal to what he's got now....with the ability to get out with no cap hit. Get Lawrence in the next draft, and cut bait when the kid's ready.