10-04-2015, 09:32 PM
The Bengals' next three games are statistically pretty close to 50-50 coin tosses, according to Fivethirtyeight's ELO predictions, which are by no means perfect but are a decent approximate guide for the statistical outcomes of NFL games:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/
With all the Sunday afternoon games in the books, the Bengals hold the fifth spot in the ELO rankings, behind the Patriots, Packers, Broncos, and Seahawks. They make the playoffs in 82% of simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC North 67% of the time, finishing with an average of 11.3 wins in the regular season. Their odds of winning the club's first-ever Super Bowl title are at 8%.
Cincinnati has a 54% chance of prevailing at home next week versus Seattle, and a 52% chance of emerging with a road victory the following week at Buffalo. After the bye week, the Bengals travel to Pittsburgh, where they are predicted to win 46% of the time versus the Steelers, although the ELO simulation does not account for Ben Roethlisberger's injury (the system only takes into account final scores of past games, past ELO ratings, and which team is playing at home). It isn't until Week 9 that the Bengals will again be heavy favorites, when ELO predicts an 84% chance of victory at home against the Browns.
The only game this season that ELO currently predicts the Bengals are unlikely to win is their week 16 matchup at Denver, when they have a 34% chance at victory. That's still quite a bit better than the Titans' 9% victory chance against the Patriots in Week 15.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/
With all the Sunday afternoon games in the books, the Bengals hold the fifth spot in the ELO rankings, behind the Patriots, Packers, Broncos, and Seahawks. They make the playoffs in 82% of simulations of the rest of the season and win the AFC North 67% of the time, finishing with an average of 11.3 wins in the regular season. Their odds of winning the club's first-ever Super Bowl title are at 8%.
Cincinnati has a 54% chance of prevailing at home next week versus Seattle, and a 52% chance of emerging with a road victory the following week at Buffalo. After the bye week, the Bengals travel to Pittsburgh, where they are predicted to win 46% of the time versus the Steelers, although the ELO simulation does not account for Ben Roethlisberger's injury (the system only takes into account final scores of past games, past ELO ratings, and which team is playing at home). It isn't until Week 9 that the Bengals will again be heavy favorites, when ELO predicts an 84% chance of victory at home against the Browns.
The only game this season that ELO currently predicts the Bengals are unlikely to win is their week 16 matchup at Denver, when they have a 34% chance at victory. That's still quite a bit better than the Titans' 9% victory chance against the Patriots in Week 15.
