Bobby Hart-ejection

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-25-2019, 04:45 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I've been wondering where to put this and this looks like as good a place as any. We've all had discussions about PFF grades, pro and con (mostly con because there aren't too many Bengals with good grades), so i wanted to do an analysis of their grading--if it looked consistent in regards to what players are doing--to see if how they are producing equates objectively to their grade, and along with that, are the grades consistent from player to player on different teams. 

To answer your question first, he's grading out below average; that is, he's not one of the top 32 OTs currently. He's grading in about the 65th(maybe slightly better) percentile with an overall grade of 57.1. To give some context...
68.0 or better is in the top 25% (top 16)
61.0 or better is in the top 50% (top 32)
55.3 or better is in the top 75% (top 48), and, 
40.0 is the bottom (64th)

I've been as skeptical as anyone on their grading system. Always loved their raw numbers and the different statistical breakdowns they have. That's the reason i wanted to see how "fair" their grading system is; not necessarily based on how well or bad they played but if it looked consistent based on other players of the same position. I, surprisingly, found that they are (based on these limited examples) fair in how players graded, compared to their peers. 

Looking at starting OTs, i based this on hurries and pressures given up. I wanted to find players that had similar numbers so that i could look at their grades to see if they were consistent. The first group here gave up a hight number of each (by high, i mean they were near or at the worst). 

M.Moses WAS---147pbsn---RT---2sk---3hit---10hur---15pr---3pn---57.1pbgr---53.4rbgr---55.3ogr
G.Ifedi ---SEA---132pbsn---RT---2sk---0hit---11hur---13pr---5pn---47.7pbgr---66.3rbgr---54.8ogr
A.Smith --CIN---112pbsn---LT---2sk---1hit---10hur---13pr---4pn---56.4pbgr---52.0rbgr---51.2ogr
B.Hart  ---CIN---149pbsn---RT---1sk---0hit----9hur---10pr---1pn---62.7pbgr---50.9rbgr---57.1ogr
KEY: pbsn=pass block snaps, sk=sacks, hit=hits on QB, hur=hurries, pr=pressure, pn=penalties, pbgr=pass block grade, rbgr=run block grade, ogr=overall grade

From these four, Bobby Hart has the best pbgr @62.7, giving up the least amount, across the board, of sacks, hits, hurries, pressure and penalties while having the most snaps played. The others pretty much fall in line, giving up more or less in different categories. The overall grade looks to be pretty close to taking the pbgr and rbgr together and dividing it by two, with a slight variance...when snap count or other minor issues are added(maybe ?). I don't know exactly how their formula works.

The next group of four gave up a lesser amount in these categores.

C.Hubbard CLV---92pbsn---RL---2sk---0hit---1hur---3pr---3pn---73.8pbgr---42.8rbgr---55.1ogr
G.RobinsonCLV--101pbsn---LT---0sk---2hit---1hur---3pr---4pn---73.9pbgr---65.5rbgr---68.0ogr
M.McGlinch SF----99pbsn---RT---1sk---1hit---1hur---3pr---3pn---69.5pbgr---45.9rbgr---48.9ogr
T.Brown   OAK----91pbsn---RT---1sk---0hit---2hur---3pr---2pn---75.6pbgr---79.8rbgr---75.1ogr

This group seems to follow the previous group in that Brown has given up the least amount of sk, hit, hur, pr, pn in total but doesn't follow that formula strictly as you can see that McGlinchy has the worst of the 4, but not the overall worst numbers; though the grades are close enough that you can't claim any kind of bias or unfairness. 

The next group of four are the top 4 overall grades.

L.Collins DAL-----107pbsn---RT---0sk---0hit---1hur---1pr---2pn---79.3pbgr---91.2rbgr---90.6ogr
M.Schwartz KC---137pbsn---RT---0sk---2hit---2hur---4pr---1pn---78.8pbgr---83.5rbgr---84.6ogr
T.Smith   DAL----107pbsn---LT---0sk---0hit---0hur---0pr---1pn---90.3pbgr---73.2rbgr---83.6ogr
A.Castonz IND----111pbsn---LT---0sk---1hit---3hur---4pr---0pn---78.3pbgr---73.8rbgr---79.1ogr

If you look at 'given up', you can see that Smith has the highest pbgr because he's given up zilch on pressures and the rest, and the only thing that stands out to me is that Collins has a grade similar to Schwartz and Castonzo even though he's only given up 2 hur/pr while the other two have given up a total of 6 and 7 hur/pr and each have given up hits while Collins has zero there. Even though Smith has given up nothing as far as pressures, Collins has the overall top grade when you factor in his run block grade. 

So, i was a bit surprised to find that even though i may still not agree with how they say someone has played, and the grade they were given, at the very least they are fair across the board, the majority of the time, and consistent. So, i'd say i'm leaning towards looking at their grading system in a more positive light and i'll be more willing to cite it in the future. 

EDIT: I originally had "not leaning" when i meant that i am leaning.

Great stuff, man.  Thanks for taking the time.  Very interesting.  Since I seem to have wavered from defending Dalton to Ross and now to Hart, here is one other argument I would make in his, and the entire offensive line's, defense.  The Bengals have been behind in every game.  They have had very few rushing attempts...probably the fewest in the league.  When an opposing defense doesn't have to worry about defending the rush at all, they are teeing off every snap with no fear of being caught in overpursuit and leaving their rushing lanes. 

That is why I have been saying I hope the Bengals line up with two TEs and pound the steelers with a lot of rushing attempts.  Even when there is only moderate success, they have to get them THINKING about run defense.  I was shocked to see that the Bengals didn't run ONE play-action fake in the first half against Buffalo...even if they are just faking a rush, it helps.  It helped provide one of the worst offensive halves of football in the Dalton-Green Era.  

One other quick note about your stats.  A lot of people wanted us to draft McGlinchey.  Looks like he isn't the all-world prospect many thought he was and I thought he was drafted as a LT.  Regardless, it goes to show that Hart is producing just as well in a less-balanced offense.