Confession of a Dalton Defender

[Shake n Blake]

(05-28-2015, 10:24 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Don't forget about the infamous Bobby Hoyer!

Ugh. Wasn't that the guy who started for the Eagles in the late 90's and started a season with 9 straight INT's without a TD?

I can't believe he's still playing. 

(05-28-2015, 01:42 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I'd never disagree that YPA is a big factor in a single game. Over a season it's not. Go back and check the seasonal examples i gave in an earlier post and you will see how close they are.

Standard QB rating does not favor one QB over another after a reasonable amount of data is accumulated.

EDIT: I'll just copy/paste it here.

It doesn't hurt anyone any more or less since averages are used. The yards / attempts have a multiplier of 1/4 of one percent (EDIT: incorrect. It's 1/4 of 1-- X .25). Examples: Rodgers- 4,381/520(8.43ypa) x .25= 2.11 , Rivers- 4,286/570(7.52) x .25= 1.88 , Wilson- 3,475/452(7.69) x .25= 1.92 , G.Smith- 2,525/367(6.88) x .25= 1.72 , Dalton- 3,398/481(7.06) x .25= 1.77 , Locker- 993/146(6.80) x .25= 1.70

Rodgers-- 2.11 -- att. 520 -- yds. 4,381
Rivers ---- 1.88 -- att. 570 -- yds. 4,286
Wilson --- 1.92 -- att. 452 -- yds. 3,475
G.Smith---1.72 -- att. 367 -- yds. 2,525
Dalton --- 1.77 -- att. 481 -- yds. 3,398
Locker --- 1.70 -- att. 146 -- yds. 993

When you list numbers like 2.11, 1.88 and 1.77, it makes it seem like there's not a big difference, but you're leaving out the fact that all the numbers are small until they're added together, divided by 6, then multiplied by 100. Here's the entire formula:

(completion % minus 30) x 0.05
(yards per attempt minus 3) x 0.25 --- You were forgetting to subract 3 in your formula
Touchdown % x 0.2
2.375 minus (INT% x 0.25)

Here's the points Dalton was credited for the following stats, with actual passer rating points in parenthesis:

Completion %: 1.71 (28.5)
YPA: 1.02 (17.0)
TD%: 0.79 (13.2)
INT%: 1.49 (24.8)

Here's Aaron Rodgers' for comparison:

Completion %: 1.78 (29.7)
YPA: 1.36 (22.7)
TD%: 1.46 (24.3)
INT%: 2.13 (35.5)

So for Rodgers averaging 1.36 YPA more than Dalton on the season, he was awarded 5.7 more points to his passer rating. Pretty solid bump really.

I do have a lot of problems with the overall formula though. QB's should not be awarded points no matter how lousy their INT% is. Dalton had a bad INT% last year, yet he received his 2nd highest amount of points for that category. Also, rewarding points for both completion % and YPA is kind of redundant, as completion % plays so much into YPA. Instead, they should use yards per completion. I really can't believe that no one has improved on this formula through the years.