Perspective on the value of a top 5 pick.

[BengalChris]

(11-03-2019, 02:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In my opinion we are looking at a top 2 pick in the next draft.  If this happens then the big debate will be what should we do with that pick.  Some will say we need to use it on a QB because we may not have the chance to draft that high again.  Others will say we need to fix other parts of the team before we look for a QB.

I suppose the biggest question will be how good are the top QBs in this year's draft.  That is almost impossible to tell at this point.  The really in-depth draft analysis does not begin until after the college season is over.  It is not uncommon for the QB draft rankings to change between the end of the season and the draft.  But in connection with this we also need to look at how accurate these rankings have been for QBs taken in the top 5.  Here is a look at the QBs taken in the top 5 of previous drafts and the top QB taken in those drafts


'00... No top 5 QB.  (Chad Pennington first QB at #18)  Best.. Brady in 6th round but such extreme outlier that doesn't really count.
'01... Mike Vick (#1).  Best.. Brees (#32)
'02... David Carr (#1) Joey harrington (#3).  Best.. David Garrard (#108)
'03... Palmer (#1) also best.
'04... Eli Manning (#1) Phillip Rivers (#4).  Hard to say who was the best QB in that draft, but Roethlisberger went #11
'05... Alex Smith (#1).  Best.. Aaron Rodgers (#25)
'06... Vince Young (#3).  Best.. Young actually played very well (2 Pro Bowls, .620 win percentage), but Jay Cutler (#11) had better career.
'07... JaMarcus Russell (#1).  Best..  Kevin Kolb (#36)?
'08... Matt Ryan (#3) also best
'09... Matt Stafford (#1) Mark Sanchez (#5).  Best.. Stafford
'10... Sam Bradford (#1) also best'11... Cam Newton (#1).  Best.. Amdy Dalton (#35)     
'12... Andrew Luck (#1) Robert Griffen (#2).  Best.. Russell Wilson (#75) but this draft was also an extreme outlier with guys like Brandon Weeden (#22) and Brock Osweiler (#57) going in the 1st and 2nd rounds while Willson, Nick Foles (#88) and Kirk Cousins (#102) lasted to the 3rd and 4th.
'13... No top 5 QB and really no good QB at all.  And this just one year after 3 good starters lasted until the third round.
'14... Blake Bortles (#3).  Best.. Derek Carr (#36) or Jimmy Garoppolo (#62).  Teddy Bridgewater also went #32.
'15... Jameis Winstead (#1), Marcus Mariota (#2).  Best..  No other good QBs.
'16... Jared Goff (#1) Carson Wentz (#2).  Best.. Goff and Wentz are both good, but Dak Prescott went #135.
'17... Mitchell Trubisky (#2).  Best..Patrick Mahomes (#10) Deshaun Watson (#12).
'18... Baker Mayfield (#1) Sam Darnold (#3).  Best..  Really too early to tell (see: Vince Young) but Lamar Jackson went #32.


So over the last 20 years over two-thirds of the time the best QB was not taken in the top 5 picks.  Some will argue that this may also apply to all other positions as well.  I think teams "reach" for a QB more than any other position and this is why so many questionable QBs are taken in the top 5 picks.


Next we have to look at the value of a top 5 pick.  Many people have been complaining about the Bengals not trading players for picks, but any player we trade to get any sort of decent pick would just create another hole in our roster.  It is a zero net sum gain.  We would probably gain some cap space by replacing solid starters with cheaper rookies, but not all picks turn into solid starters.  So we may just be creating more holes to fill.  The best way to gain a lot of picks is to trade away a top 2 pick.  Here are some examples of what a top 2 pick can be worth.  Of course this varies from year to year based on how high the top 2 college players are rated, but we won't know that until after the season is over.

In 2016 the Titans gave up the #1 pick (plus a 4th and 6th round pick) in exchange for the #15 pick, two 2nd round picks (#43 and #45) and a 3rd (#76) that year in addition to a 1st round and 3rd round pick in 2017.

In 2011 the Browns gave up the #6 pick in exchange for a 1st (#27), 2nd (#54) and 4th (#124) that year plus a 1st and 4th the next year.

In 1998 the Cardinals dropped just one spot in the draft (from #2 to #3) and also received the Cards '98 second round pick (#33) and '99 first round pick (#8) plus 2 players.  

In 2012 the Rams gave up the #2 pick in the draft for the #6 pick and #39 pick that year plus first round picks in '13 (#22) and '14 (#2).

In 1977 the Seahawks gave up the #2 pick in exchange for the #14 pick plus 3 second round picks (#30, #41, #54)

In '01 the Chargers gave up the #1 pick for the #5 pick plus a 3rd round pick (#67) and a 2nd round pick the next year (#48)

In '99 the Redskins gave up the #5 pick in exchange for the #12 pick plus 5 other picks that year (3rd through 7th round) and a first (#5) and third (#64) the next year.  The only thing crazier than the amount the Saints gave up was the fact that FOUR teams passed on the deal.



If the Bengals could get anything close to any of those offers I think we have to jump on it.  QBs taken in the top 5 are nothing close to a sure thing.  The draft is more of a crap shoot than many people want to admit.  the best way to increase your chances of getting good players is to increase your number of chances.  Plus we have multiple holes to fill.

The draft is more like Black Jack. If you inept at the game you can still win a hand now and then. If you understand the game, you'll still have bad hands, but you'll win a lot more hands than the guy who is inept.

As your list suggests, there are decent and good QBs to be had outside the top 5.

With a top 2 pick you almost have to take the best player who is there regardless of position.

The sad part is that the Bengals will not competently fill needs in free agency. Say Chase Young is there and the best guy (not saying that he is or will even be there with the 2nd pick) and the Bengals take him. They will not find a good RT is free agency. They will not find a good LB in free agency. Instead, they'll take a OT in the second, a LBer in the 3rd, a WR to replace AJ Green (who I believe is all but gone) in the 4th and 5th or something like that.

Next season, nothing will be fixed and ineptitude of Mike Brown ball will continue.