11-08-2019, 01:08 PM
(11-08-2019, 11:11 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Player B is Joe Burrow. That one was easy.
Player A is Akili Smith. Took awhile to find that, but I found it!
The significant stat that you left out was completion percentage. Smith was never above 60% whereas Burrow has nearly an 80% completion percentage this year.
That's it!
To clarify, I'm not saying (or predicting) that Burrow will be the next Akili Smith. Obviously, they are two very different people/players, and there are many significant differences between the two, pro and con. Akili was a more heralded QB prospect out of high school (all-american), a better athlete (played 3 years of minor league baseball), and had a bigger arm. Burrow is smarter, has a better work ethic (by all accounts), throws a more catchable ball, and generally makes better on-field decisions and has a better pocket presence.
But the similarities are uncanny. In addition to the stats I cited, both are "one-year wonders" and were largely considered undraftable before their successful senior seasons. (I read yesterday that Meyer used to tease Burrow at OSU and call him a DIII QB; he was never seriously considered to contend for the starting spot there). Both were/will be older than average when drafted (Akili was 24, Burrow will be 23). Both are slightly smaller than the size thought to be "prototypical" for QBs. Both come from somewhat gimmicky offenses -- Akili ran a pro style with option packages, Burrow runs a spread/RPO combo. Both were/are only required to read half the field in college. Was certainly enough to raise my eyebrows, as I had never realized a lot of this ...
And while college stats don't carry over to the NFL and are not predictive of NFL success, I've read that completion percentage is the measurable that best translates from college to the NFL. Akili's was mediocre in college and terrible in the NFL. Burrow's is far better this year, but prior to that time was roughly equivalent to Akili's. What's the reason for his recent success? Has he really gotten that much better at completing passes? Possibly. Or maybe it's just a product of the system? Or maybe it's his receivers (who have been described as "rangy," whatever that means ...)? I have no idea, but I'm really starting to obsess about this (as you can probably tell).
