Guess the QBs

[*ochocincos*]

(11-08-2019, 01:08 PM)shanebo Wrote: That's it!

To clarify, I'm not saying (or predicting) that Burrow will be the next Akili Smith.  Obviously, they are two very different people/players, and there are many significant differences between the two, pro and con.  Akili was a more heralded QB prospect out of high school (all-american), a better athlete (played 3 years of minor league baseball), and had a bigger arm.  Burrow is smarter, has a better work ethic (by all accounts), throws a more catchable ball, and generally makes better on-field decisions and has a better pocket presence. 

But the similarities are uncanny.  In addition to the stats I cited, both are "one-year wonders" and were largely considered undraftable before their successful senior seasons.  (I read yesterday that Meyer used to tease Burrow at OSU and call him a DIII QB; he was never seriously considered to contend for the starting spot there).  Both were/will be older than average when drafted (Akili was 24, Burrow will be 23).  Both are slightly smaller than the size thought to be "prototypical" for QBs.  Both come from somewhat gimmicky offenses -- Akili ran a pro style with option packages, Burrow runs a spread/RPO combo.  Both were/are only required to read half the field in college.   Was certainly enough to raise my eyebrows, as I had never realized a lot of this ...

And while college stats don't carry over to the NFL and are not predictive of NFL success, I've read that completion percentage is the measurable that best translates from college to the NFL.  Akili's was mediocre in college and terrible in the NFL.  Burrow's is far better this year, but prior to that time was roughly equivalent to Akili's.  What's the reason for his recent success?  Has he really gotten that much better at completing passes?  Possibly.   Or maybe it's just a product of the system?  Or maybe it's his receivers (who have been described as "rangy," whatever that means ...)?  I have no idea, but I'm really starting to obsess about this (as you can probably tell). 

I'm always going to be skeptical of a QB who takes a massive leap in production their final year before the draft. It's (almost?) never panned out well once the QB gets to the NFL.

With that said, Burrow may be a product of his environment. He got passed over multiple times in favor of JT Barrett, Cardale Jones, and seemingly Dwayne Haskins. He then chose to go to LSU, who traditionally had been a heavy run-based team under Les Miles.
According to reports, Orgeron has wanted to go to a more pass-focused offense ever since he took over for Miles in 2016 but finally was able to get to where he wanted once they hired former Saints assistant Joe Brady as passing game coordinator.

So, on one hand, you could say that Burrow was just doing as the program dictated his first year at LSU and that's why he wasn't as productive in 2018. But on the other hand, you could easily question why he couldn't beat out any of Barrett (not in NFL), Jones (no longer in NFL), and Haskins (designated to backup behind Case Keenum to start 2019 but now starting yet not doing well so far).

I think anyone who has concerns of any SEC QB being great can back their claim by how the SEC teams are typically built on defense, the running game, and typically really good WRs when the QB is putting up bigger numbers. However, I think Tua is a different type of QB than what Alabama has typically put out there, same with Burrow. I think the Bengals need a more mobile guy, and I think Tua offers that better. Plus, Williams has protected Tua before so that helps.

It's been quite a while where none of the Top 5 QBs for a draft class are from the Big 12 or ACC. We're currently looking at the Top 5 being from the SEC (Tua, Burrow, Fromm) and PAC 12 (Herbert, Eason). Very weird.