Why a QB this year isn't the move

[Whatever]

(11-11-2019, 09:29 AM)Au165 Wrote: I get it, QB is the most important position in football. There is an association with assigning wins to QB's (which is dumb) and so people assume the potentially 0-16 team has to go QB. The fact of the matter though is simple, this team is bad all over the field. The easy answer is to go QB the smart answer is to go everywhere else.

The first thing to realize is this is the new age NFL. Guys like Russell Wilsons, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Kylar Murray are the future. The big plodding immobile QB is a dinosaur because the O lines are just getting worse for whatever reason (I have my theories). Coming out I was much higher on Lamar Jackson and Kylar Murray than most here and that was because of what they give you in terms of masking your O line inefficiencies. These guys give defensive coordinators nightmares because they limit the ability to play man coverage, which gives the QB's more defined throws.

With that said, this is not the class of the new age QB, this is the class of guys who can move better than Tom Brady and Phillip Rivers but they aren't supreme athletes. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa are really good QB prospects. They have their strengths and they are differences between them but both would be solid options to draft this year if a QB was the finishing piece to an otherwise up and coming team. My issue is neither of these guys are going to come in and win in the near future because the team around them is not good enough offensively or defensively right now. I think both guys could get the team into the 4 or 5 win range, but all that will do is make finishing off the roster tougher with worse draft position. We will end up in a kind of purgatory we are somewhat familiar with from the 90's.

Now what this class does offer is a TON of other solid options to help build this team. Chase Young will be graded has the highest graded pass rusher coming out in the last decade when it's all said and done. He will be graded higher than Myles Garrett, Khalil Mack, Nick Bosa...all of them. As we have seen this year, while we love the guys on the D line they aren't as good as we want to act like they are. It's easy to blame the LB's for everything, but if you watch the tape with emotions aside the D line as a whole has not played well this year. If we are going into an era of the new age QB we need an elite end who can chase these guys around and bring them down, Chase Young is that guy and it shouldn't even be a debate.

Then what? Chase Young can't fix this team on his own right? No, he can't but he's a good building block. The next piece is that 2nd round pick. If you go back the last couple years and look at 2nd round picks in the top 5 and you will see some really good players who fell out of the 1st round still on the board. There were a bunch of board favorite O linemen available last year and I'd expect this year to be similar. Maybe you go O line, or maybe you go LB or even CB to help try and shore up what has again been a league worst unit. After that you got room to play, maybe you package a guy like Carlos Dunlap with your 3rd for another crack in the 2nd to find that O linemen everyone wants, the options are out there especially if you know you are going Chase Young 1 overall.

But what about QB? Well that answer is easy, we are going to suck for a couple years it's time to accept it. In terms of the new age QB we are a year away from a class that is flush with "that guy" QB's. Trevor Lawrence get's the press as the pocket passing prototypical QB because he is white, but the reality is the kid can run and is sneaky fast. I'd comp him as Andrew Luck both for his intelligence and throwing ability, but also for his highly underrated running ability. The other big time option is Just Fields out of Ohio State. Fields is a big guys so it's not an easy comp, but to me his ability to escape pressure in the pocket while keeping his eyes down field is Russell Wilson like. His accuracy is deadly, but he isn't going to kill you with speed.

If you are looking at this whole mess big picture, going QB this year is the easy answer not the right answer. I'll go on record saying, I think Joe Burrow will be a really good pro QB (I'll do a break down on him at some point as his recent tape is great). I think Tua will be really good in the right system (a west coast hybrid that has some play makers who can run after the catch). I think neither will find much success here because we aren't equipped, as currently constructed, to help them succeed. If we take a year to build up the team with some elite players before we get QB's who are more suited to handle the pitfalls of this roster (which won't be fixed in a single year) we can be competitive in just two drafts.

The Bengals are not going to be dissuaded by a potentially long turnaround from taking a QB.  Reason being, they have quickly turned the club around with the last 2 high QB selections they have made.  There is no reason for them to anticipate a 3-4 year rebuild.

If you think the QB can't be successful, then you use FA, trades, and the rest of your draft to fix the OL and add some weapons so he can be successful.  You don't just not take a QB.  If you're taking a QB, then you need to focus on the offense around him so he can have success early.

From a business perspective, they can't go into next year without a new QB unless Finley or Dolegala shows franchise QB potential.  You have to sell tickets.  You either have to go QB in the first 2 rounds or sign/trade for a vet.

You have to weigh your options.  A lot of it comes down to how you evaluate the #4-6 QB's that you can potentially get at the top of 2 vs your top 1-2 prospects that you're potentially looking at in 1.  If there's 1-2 guys you like in the 2nd, then maybe you take Young and a QB in 1 and 2, similar to the AJ-Dalton draft.  You can't just punt on a QB this year, though.