11-11-2019, 04:17 PM
(11-11-2019, 03:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals are not going to be dissuaded by a potentially long turnaround from taking a QB. Reason being, they have quickly turned the club around with the last 2 high QB selections they have made. There is no reason for them to anticipate a 3-4 year rebuild.
If you think the QB can't be successful, then you use FA, trades, and the rest of your draft to fix the OL and add some weapons so he can be successful. You don't just not take a QB. If you're taking a QB, then you need to focus on the offense around him so he can have success early.
From a business perspective, they can't go into next year without a new QB unless Finley or Dolegala shows franchise QB potential. You have to sell tickets. You either have to go QB in the first 2 rounds or sign/trade for a vet.
You have to weigh your options. A lot of it comes down to how you evaluate the #4-6 QB's that you can potentially get at the top of 2 vs your top 1-2 prospects that you're potentially looking at in 1. If there's 1-2 guys you like in the 2nd, then maybe you take Young and a QB in 1 and 2, similar to the AJ-Dalton draft. You can't just punt on a QB this year, though.
How many of those rebuild came after going 0-16 potentially? Palmer was 32-33 his first 5 years (although he got hurt his 5th year but they were 0-4 when he did). Palmer came into a bad situation and we meandered around as an average team the first 5 years. Dalton came in with one of the better lines in football and a top 10 defense in both points and yards, something a rookie next year will 100% not have. Dalton came into a really good situation and we fond success quicker, which is exactly what I am talking about setting up here.
The Falcons tried to fix their O line with multiple rookies this year and it was a disaster. The Vikings a couple years ago tried to fix it with 5 new starters through FA and draft, it was a disaster. Good O lines tend to take a year or two to meld together outside of replacing one starter. Thinking you can patch it up is wishful thinking and frankly disregarding that is not how this team will build.
From a business perspective loss of ticket sales is a drop in the bucket. The announced attendance was 45k on Sunday and while 45k people weren't there the Bengals benefited from selling 45k tickets. Let's go ahead and say our average attendance is in fact 45k, in comparison our average attendance during good years was about 60k tickets. Over the course of 8 home games that works out to 120k tickets we aren't selling right now versus some of our best years. Let's say each ticket is $70 a piece, that means the team is only missing out on 8.4 million dollars a year currently with a team that could be 0-16. Now that is probably offset a bit by Taylor and his staff making a substantially smaller amount than Marvin in salary and honestly it's a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly $250 million the national revenue share piece they get.
Chasing mid tier QB's statistically doesn't work, and Dalton was more outlier than he was rule as much as people here hated him. There have been 59 QB's drafted since Dalton (besides this recent class since it's too soon). Of those 59 QB's 5 QB's have worked out as decent or better long term starter options Prescott, Wilson, Jimmy G, Carr, Cousins and Jacoby Brissett may be that guy but we will see. So let's say for the sake of this discussion 6 out of 59 or roughly 10% of QB's could end up being some version of good after the 1st round. In comparison, there have been 21 QB's taken in the 1st since the Dalton draft with 11 being serviceable starters or 52%. Being drafted in the 1st doesn't make you good, being drafted in the 1st usually means if there is any chance you will be good people will take a swing on you because of the leagues desire to find a QB.
Putting off a QB for another year with this team is probably a difference in 2-3 wins. If you talk to professional gamblers a QB is worth 1-2 games usually with some of the elite ones being worth 3-3.5 wins. If this team is an 0-16 team they are most likely a 4 win or less team next year and no QB changes that so you invest in the team around the QB and run any guy out there to then position for one more big draft before the real push to win begins. As fans you hate to see it, but if you look at the teams who are winning now that came from a dumpster fire like us, San Francisco for example, they take a couple years of high pick drafting before they really make upward movement.
