Why a QB this year isn't the move

[Whatever]

(11-11-2019, 04:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: How many of those rebuild came after going 0-16 potentially? Palmer was 32-33 his first 5 years (although he got hurt his 5th year but they were 0-4 when he did). Palmer came into a bad situation and we meandered around as an average team the first 5 years. Dalton came in with one of the better lines in football and a top 10 defense in both points and yards, something a rookie next year will 100% not have.  Dalton came into a really good situation and we fond success quicker, which is exactly what I am talking about setting up here.

The Falcons tried to fix their O line with multiple rookies this year and it was a disaster. The Vikings a couple years ago tried to fix it with 5 new starters through FA and draft, it was a disaster. Good O lines tend to take a year or two to meld together outside of replacing one starter. Thinking you can patch it up is wishful thinking and frankly disregarding that is not how this team will build.

From a business perspective loss of ticket sales is a drop in the bucket. The announced attendance was 45k on Sunday and while 45k people weren't there the Bengals benefited from selling 45k tickets. Let's go ahead and say our average attendance is in fact 45k, in comparison our average attendance during good years was about 60k tickets. Over the course of 8 home games that works out to 120k tickets we aren't selling right now versus some of our best years. Let's say each ticket is $70 a piece, that means the team is only missing out on 8.4 million dollars a year currently with a team that could be 0-16. Now that is probably offset a bit by Taylor and his staff making a substantially smaller amount than Marvin in salary and honestly it's a drop in the bucket compared to the roughly $250 million the national revenue share piece they get.

Chasing mid tier QB's statistically doesn't work, and Dalton was more outlier than he was rule as much as people here hated him. There have been 59 QB's drafted since Dalton (besides this recent class since it's too soon). Of those 59 QB's 5 QB's have worked out as decent or better long term starter options Prescott, Wilson, Jimmy G, Carr, Cousins and Jacoby Brissett may be that guy but we will see. So let's say for the sake of this discussion 6 out of 59 or roughly 10% of QB's could end up being some version of good after the 1st round. In comparison, there have been 21 QB's taken in the 1st since the Dalton draft with 11 being serviceable starters or 52%. Being drafted in the 1st doesn't make you good, being drafted in the 1st usually means if there is any chance you will be good people will take a swing on you because of the leagues desire to find a QB.

Putting off a QB for another year with this team is probably a difference in 2-3 wins. If you talk to professional gamblers a QB is worth 1-2 games usually with some of the elite ones being worth 3-3.5 wins. If this team is an 0-16 team they are most likely a 4 win or less team next year and no QB changes that so you invest in the team around the QB and run any guy out there to then position for one more big draft before the real push to win begins. As fans you hate to see it, but if you look at the teams who are winning now that came from a dumpster fire like us, San Francisco for example, they take a couple years of high pick drafting before they really make upward movement. 

The Bengals were 2-14 in '02 the year before they drafted Palmer.  They were 8-8 in '03 with Kitna at QB.  The Browns were 0-16 in '17 and 7-8-1 the following year.  The league is built on parity.  You can turn it around quickly if you make the right moves.

Dalton didn't come in with a great line.  The '10 Bengals OL was...

• 72 Kirk Chambers T
• 73 Anthony Collins T
• 64 Kyle Cook C
• 62 Nate Livings G
• 66 Evan Mathis G
• 74 Dennis Roland T
• 61 Reggie Stephens C
• 77 Andrew Whitworth T
• 63 Bobbie Williams G
  

Andre Smith had gone on IR with broken feet in '09 and '10 and was very much trending towards bust status at that time.  Their big OL add in '11 was Boling in the 4th, but he didn't become a quality starter until year 2.  They were also the 15th ranked defense in '10, not a top 10 unit.

If Jonah Williams pans out and you retain Hopkins, then you're basically a LG and a RT away from having a decent OL.  Hopkins is solid.  Miller is serviceable.  If he's one of your top 2 OL, you're in trouble, but if he's your 4th or 5th best, you're ok.  

The Bengals sold a bunch of season tickets due to the coaching change last year.  The bloom is off that rose.  If this team goes 0-16, how many of those season ticket holders do you think will reup without some major impetus?  Not many.  You also aren't factoring in things like parking, concessions, and souvenirs.  The average revenue per fan is probably closer to $150.  Plus a new franchise QB means jersey sales, etc.  

We can argue chasing mid tier QB's, but percentages aren't likely to dissuade a team that beat those same percentages.  I'm not sure why you don't have Nick Foles listed at as hit, as he's won a SB.  Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, and Gardner Minishew may also buck the trend.  You could hit on one, or you can easily move on if you miss.

If you're going to suck next year, anyways, why not get your QB when you have the chance?  Then you can take the bpa or trade down for a king's ransom with some team desperate for a QB next year.