11-12-2019, 09:35 AM
(11-11-2019, 09:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Bengals were 2-14 in '02 the year before they drafted Palmer. They were 8-8 in '03 with Kitna at QB. The Browns were 0-16 in '17 and 7-8-1 the following year. The league is built on parity. You can turn it around quickly if you make the right moves.
Dalton didn't come in with a great line. The '10 Bengals OL was...
Andre Smith had gone on IR with broken feet in '09 and '10 and was very much trending towards bust status at that time. Their big OL add in '11 was Boling in the 4th, but he didn't become a quality starter until year 2. They were also the 15th ranked defense in '10, not a top 10 unit.
- 72 Kirk Chambers T
- 73 Anthony Collins T
- 64 Kyle Cook C
- 62 Nate Livings G
- 66 Evan Mathis G
- 74 Dennis Roland T
- 61 Reggie Stephens C
- 77 Andrew Whitworth T
- 63 Bobbie Williams G
If Jonah Williams pans out and you retain Hopkins, then you're basically a LG and a RT away from having a decent OL. Hopkins is solid. Miller is serviceable. If he's one of your top 2 OL, you're in trouble, but if he's your 4th or 5th best, you're ok.
The Bengals sold a bunch of season tickets due to the coaching change last year. The bloom is off that rose. If this team goes 0-16, how many of those season ticket holders do you think will reup without some major impetus? Not many. You also aren't factoring in things like parking, concessions, and souvenirs. The average revenue per fan is probably closer to $150. Plus a new franchise QB means jersey sales, etc.
We can argue chasing mid tier QB's, but percentages aren't likely to dissuade a team that beat those same percentages. I'm not sure why you don't have Nick Foles listed at as hit, as he's won a SB. Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, and Gardner Minishew may also buck the trend. You could hit on one, or you can easily move on if you miss.
If you're going to suck next year, anyways, why not get your QB when you have the chance? Then you can take the bpa or trade down for a king's ransom with some team desperate for a QB next year.
Browns 3 year record before that 7-8-1 seasons 3-13, 1-15, 0-16. They accumulated three years worth of high picks before they finally were able to pull out of the nose dive. Actually if you look back at the history of teams that went 0-16 or 1-15 almost all of them had a two year skid before bottoming out then they had a bounce off the bottom but many returned back to the bottom within a year. This to me actually says we are pretty much destined to have one more year at the bottom before a bounce.
A couple things here, Dalton didn't play in 2010 he was drafted in 2011 and played in the 2011 season. In 2011 Pro Football Outsiders graded our pass protection as 5th best in football. In 2011 our defense was 9th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed.
As I explained tickets don't really mean anything to this team. They could sell 20k tickets a game less next year and it be less than a 10 million hit from this years revenue. For a team making 300 Million dollars a year it's really just a drop in the bucket.
Nick Foles isn't listed because he busted out once in Philly and was sent to KC where he was a back up only to come back as a back up and have a nice few game stretch but never find his way back to being a starter. Maybe he does in JAX but I tend to think scheme carried him in Philly and he will be back to being the guy that got ran out of Philly. As to the other guys, the mystic of the rookie fill in is an interesting case but most people are already saying the Panthers will move on from Cam and Kyle Allen next year, the Jags already punted on Minshew back to Foles. That to me says the teams know they aren't anything special jsut replacement grade players that came in and did good enough.
This is all an analytics play. The value of the rookie QB contract is known by NFL teams as the golden ticket. That contract allows you to build a super roster around a young QB. The window usually shuts after the rookie contract sans a few outliers because then everyone on the team including the QB need paid and you have to start dismantling. The point isn't to not take a good rookie QB, the point is to take them deeper into the rebuild process to save his controllable cheap years to ensure you can build the team around them.
Look at the Rams, when Goff was cheap they brought in all sorts of high priced hired guns to make a run. Now they paid Goff and that team already had to jettison some line pieces to do so and they have regressed. Next year they are rumored to be shipping out Cooks because they can't afford him anymore. This isn't unique to them, the Legion of Boom in Seattle was broken up after Wilson's contract and the same thing happened in Baltimore after Flacco got paid.
