Why a QB this year isn't the move

[Whatever]

(11-12-2019, 09:35 AM)Au165 Wrote: Browns 3 year record before that 7-8-1 seasons 3-13, 1-15, 0-16. They accumulated three years worth of high picks before they finally were able to pull out of the nose dive. Actually if you look back at the history of teams that went 0-16 or 1-15 almost all of them had a two year skid before bottoming out then they had a bounce off the bottom but many returned back to the bottom within a year. This to me actually says we are pretty much destined to have one more year at the bottom before a bounce.

A couple things here, Dalton didn't play in 2010 he was drafted in 2011 and played in the 2011 season. In 2011 Pro Football Outsiders graded our pass protection as 5th best in football. In 2011 our defense was 9th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed.

As I explained tickets don't really mean anything to this team. They could sell 20k tickets a game less next year and it be less than a 10 million hit from this years revenue. For a team making 300 Million dollars a year it's really just a drop in the bucket. 

Nick Foles isn't listed because he busted out once in Philly and was sent to KC where he was a back up only to come back as a back up and have a nice few game stretch but never find his way back to being a starter. Maybe he does in JAX but I tend to think scheme carried him in Philly and he will be back to being the guy that got ran out of Philly. As to the other guys, the mystic of the rookie fill in is an interesting case but most people are already saying the Panthers will move on from Cam and Kyle Allen next year, the Jags already punted on Minshew back to Foles. That to me says the teams know they aren't anything special jsut replacement grade players that came in and did good enough.

This is all an analytics play. The value of the rookie QB contract is known by NFL teams as the golden ticket. That contract allows you to build a super roster around a young QB. The window usually shuts after the rookie contract sans a few outliers because then everyone on the team including the QB need paid and you have to start dismantling. The point isn't to not take a good rookie QB, the point is to take them deeper into the rebuild process to save his controllable cheap years to ensure you can build the team around them.

Look at the Rams, when Goff was cheap they brought in all sorts of high priced hired guns to make a run. Now they paid Goff and that team already had to jettison some line pieces to do so and they have regressed. Next year they are rumored to be shipping out Cooks because they can't afford him anymore. This isn't unique to them, the Legion of Boom in Seattle was broken up after Wilson's contract and the same thing happened in Baltimore after Flacco got paid.

By that logic, the Browns have been stockpiling talent with great draft position for 20+ years.  In fact, if you want a case study on why you take a QB you have a franchise grade on when you have the chance, look at Cleveland.  If you sit back and stockpile talent for 3 years and miss on your QB, all that talent you stockpile has their contracts expire and you start losing talent.  If Chase Young is as advertised, he will up in QB contract #'s for his second contract.

You're talking about not drafting a QB next year based on team performance from this year, specifically putting a rookie behind this OL.  Ergo, the situation Dalton was drafted into is very relevant to the discussion.

That's your opinion, but I guarantee Mikey doesn't see it as a drop in the bucket, especially when is going to have to build a new stadium out of his pocket in a few years.  I don't know many business owners that are going to shrug at a 3%drop in revenue no matter what dollar amounts we're talking.

You can make the "system QB" argument about a lot of 1st round QB's that I'm sure you're counting as hits,like Wentz, Goff, Jackson, Mahommes, etc.  At the end of the day, Foles has an 88.7 career QBR and a Super Bowl ring. 

The issue with your percentages is that a lot guys haven't played enough to establish themselves as a long term QB.  You can't include them in the overall, then dismiss them as stopgaps when they play well.  

The rookie QB argument is really irrelevant in this case.  Again, if Chase Young is as advertised, he will get a $20+ mil per year mega deal similar to a QB contract which puts you on the rebuild clock, anyways.  

The other side of the rookie QB contract issue is that it's so hard to find a quality QB that teams overpay for middle of the road starters like Goff, Flacco, etc.  That's why you have to pull the trigger on a guy that can carry the team.  The worst thing you can do is give a second contract to a middle of the road QB.

The other huge issue is you can't hire a QB guru as your HC and fire him without drafting him a QB.  If you don't take a QB this year, you're committing to Zac until at least halfway through 2021.  If you don't get him a QB, no HC with any reasonable prospects will come here.  

QB has to be addressed if Finley or Dolegala don't show they can handle it.  Maybe you package our 3rd and a 2nd you get from Dalton to move back up into 1 and get one.  Maybe someone offers you a king's ransom to slide a couple spots and you can still get Tua or Burrow.  But you have to address it.