11-22-2019, 03:50 PM
First off, there is no guarantee when you go back someone else won't come up in front of you. When you move back you have to make the assumption that "the guy" won't be there so when you move back you need to have a proportionate number of guys you'd be willing to take to the number of positions you are moving back.
As to the idea of moving back from 1, everyone loves to think there is always an opportunity to get a haul for the 1st pick, but that isn't the case. There are occasions where people are willing to mortgage the farm to come up for one guy but that way of thinking is actually on the down swing because of analytics. I remember an interview a few years ago with someone who was the #1 pick and who had been #1 pick a decade or so before and they basically said teams aren't willing to give up the insane haul for the #1 pick anymore because analytics say that quantity is better than quality because of the bust rates.
Now this doesn't mean we couldn't possibly trade out of 1, but just because we have 1 doesn't mean there is someone willing to give away the farm to get it as much as you will hear that narrative thrown out leading to the draft.
As to the idea of moving back from 1, everyone loves to think there is always an opportunity to get a haul for the 1st pick, but that isn't the case. There are occasions where people are willing to mortgage the farm to come up for one guy but that way of thinking is actually on the down swing because of analytics. I remember an interview a few years ago with someone who was the #1 pick and who had been #1 pick a decade or so before and they basically said teams aren't willing to give up the insane haul for the #1 pick anymore because analytics say that quantity is better than quality because of the bust rates.
Now this doesn't mean we couldn't possibly trade out of 1, but just because we have 1 doesn't mean there is someone willing to give away the farm to get it as much as you will hear that narrative thrown out leading to the draft.
