11-22-2019, 04:19 PM
(11-22-2019, 03:50 PM)Au165 Wrote: First off, there is no guarantee when you go back someone else won't come up in front of you. When you move back you have to make the assumption that "the guy" won't be there so when you move back you need to have a proportionate number of guys you'd be willing to take to the number of positions you are moving back.
As to the idea of moving back from 1, everyone loves to think there is always an opportunity to get a haul for the 1st pick, but that isn't the case. There are occasions where people are willing to mortgage the farm to come up for one guy but that way of thinking is actually on the down swing because of analytics. I remember an interview a few years ago with someone who was the #1 pick and who had been #1 pick a decade or so before and they basically said teams aren't willing to give up the insane haul for the #1 pick anymore because analytics say that quantity is better than quality because of the bust rates.
Now this doesn't mean we couldn't possibly trade out of 1, but just because we have 1 doesn't mean there is someone willing to give away the farm to get it as much as you will hear that narrative thrown out leading to the draft.
Agree with most of what you say, BUT you have teams that will be near the top of the draft that won't be looking QB that may give up quite a bit to get the draft's consensus best player in Young who has been described as a generational pass rusher.
All I'm saying is if the plan is to draft Burrow, and you could trade down a spot or two and still get him while getting either proven OL or LB help or extra draft picks, then I think it would have to be strongly considered. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, and you would have to be confident if Burrow is the guy you want that you wouldn't jeopardize it.
