11-25-2019, 12:10 PM
(11-25-2019, 11:54 AM)Catmandude123 Wrote: Trading the #1 pick makes the most sense out of all the scenarios on here so far. Even if they only get a few extra picks it still would go a lot farther than one pick. The best case would be the FO parlaying the pick while trading back. First trading with the #2 team picking(even if its not the best deal offered). Then trade the #2 pick ( best QB or best overall player in the draft). This would give the team at lest four or five picks in the first two rounds. Take a QB and two linemen and a LBers . If the players aren't there you fill them with top notch FAs(money saved by cutting Glenn, Dalton and possibly Green). This would help more than any one player. The top QB or DL player would not help enough to turn the team around anytime soon.
There is a reason this doesn't ever happen. As I explained in another thread, that always sounds good but then you realize few are willing to pay to get #1 anymore. There have been multiple interviews, I remember being Cleveland being one of them a couple years back, where they basically said teams called but they weren't giving up nearly enough to make it worth moving. Moving out of #1 for a couple day 3 picks or maybe a 3rd doesn't really help much because the bust rates when you get there are so high you are essentially trading a sure thing for a couple gambles.
Quantity is definitely a common belief in the analytics community, however #1 is a different beast though because they tend to bust at a much lower rate then all other picks. If we were the 7th pick for instance, I agree that trading back multiple times is actually the approach but at this position you either get the full value for trading out (unlikely) or you make the pick and ensure you get a star player.
