11-25-2019, 02:12 PM
(11-25-2019, 12:10 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a reason this doesn't ever happen. As I explained in another thread, that always sounds good but then you realize few are willing to pay to get #1 anymore. There have been multiple interviews, I remember being Cleveland being one of them a couple years back, where they basically said teams called but they weren't giving up nearly enough to make it worth moving. Moving out of #1 for a couple day 3 picks or maybe a 3rd doesn't really help much because the bust rates when you get there are so high you are essentially trading a sure thing for a couple gambles.I agree that the top pick is usually more successful but Burrows could also be the next coming of Jamarcus, Winston , Bradford, Carr, etc. Based on improving the total team talent trading back makes more sense. The main reason they won't is because of the wow factor that Burrows will bring and help to sell more tickets. Even though MB will shed Dalton(17mil) , Glenn (9mil) and possibly AJs(15 mil) contracts don't look for him to try to get a FA QB.
Quantity is definitely a common belief in the analytics community, however #1 is a different beast though because they tend to bust at a much lower rate then all other picks. If we were the 7th pick for instance, I agree that trading back multiple times is actually the approach but at this position you either get the full value for trading out (unlikely) or you make the pick and ensure you get a star player.
