1st pick overall in better shape

[THE PISTONS]

(12-16-2019, 05:38 PM)Whatever Wrote: If Tua and 2 other 1st's > Burrow, then why would the Dolphins or any other team give 3 1's for Burrow?  That's a big issue with a lot of hypothetical message board trades.  They generally assume that the other team is incompetent.

I like Tua as a prospect, but he's highly injury prone and may not even come out this year due to his injury.  I don't know that a team like ours that's gotten so little out of 1st round picks lately because of injuries can roll the dice on him in 1.  There is a significant chance that his hip injury really changes what he can do on the field.

The Browns have tried the trade down and fill holes and draft a lesser QB prospect over and over again. It doesn't work.  People forget that the Cowboys already had Aikman when they pulled the Walker trade. If you have a QB, you trade down to fill holes around him.  If you don't, you take the top guy if you have a shot at him.

There's risk in the Dolphins 1st Round pick next year too...as they have some $100 million in cap space. They could be an 8-9 win team.

I don't trust the Bengals drafting Tua with his injury that they'll properly evaluate it. I don't trust the Bengals evaluating Herbert either. There's some chance that Herbert or Tua land in a better situation and outperform Burrow, but we have to go with Burrow. He's the obvious pick.

Plus, the whole trade down thing can blow up. The Falcons offered us the same package for the pick that became AJ Green as they did to the Browns for the Julio Jones pick. The Browns landed 5 players:

Phil Taylor
Greg Little
Owen Merecic (a RB) in the 3rd Round - Released after 2 years and retired.
Brandon Weeden
Trent Richardson

For a team that selected a blocking TE in the 2nd Round, the Bengals would likely make similar mistakes.