Prediction: AJ Green Will be Back

[*ochocincos*]

(01-01-2020, 03:44 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: There's nothing safe about inking a 32 year old player with his recent history to a multi-year deal.  Front loaded or not, those are still cap dollars that could be spent elsewhere. Those are cap dollars you could use to front load other deals, or spend for immediate needs.

If we could get him on incentive laden deal then that would make the most sense, especially one at, say, 2 years. But I don't think that has any realistic chance of happening.

Like all players and all contracts, and especially for those that are maybe a guys last multi-year deal, it's all about the guaranteed money. The signing bonus. The security.

That's what he wants, and what it will take to lock him up. If you think he's going to ink something at 5-8 million dollar base, with loads of incentives then you're kidding yourself.

An incentive laden deal is typically short. A "prove it" one year deal is similar in the fact it won't work here. If he wanted a deal like that, which I don't think he does, he wants with a contender. For two reasons: 1.) A chance at a ring. 2.) The best chance to pad his stats to increase his value and/or collect incentives. We offer neither at this point.

Maybe I'm wrong and you're right, I just don't see any way any incentives ties him here.I think he wants his last "real" deal and all the security it comes with. And if he doesn't get it here then he'll take the alternative elsewhere.

To each their own, but if you want him then it comes with a boatload of risk. His last real AJ Green type of season was 2015. FIVE years ago. Frontload his deal, and I guess some will feel safe. I sure as hell don't though.

I'm with you.

I'd prefer to go after a WR actually in his prime if I'm going to pay $15+ mill a year for a WR.
Or go the route you mention of drafting a guy on Day 2/3 and maybe getting a mid-tier vet in the $5-8 mill range.
Maybe Robby Anderson or the like.