Auden Tate is Much Better Than Most People Think

[Whatever]

(01-21-2020, 09:11 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: So I thought I'd show a little love to Tate here with this thread. I'm not so sure he really gets talked about enough on here, and he definitely gets slept on by the media. He's one of a plethora of reasons I want no part of AJ Green returning on a multi-year deal. Here's why, IMHO, I think he may be overlooked...

---His core numbers for this season: 40 catches, 575 yards 1TD.  On paper these may not be eye-catching, but if you dig a little deeper I think you'll find they're actually quite impressive.

He did not play in week 1, and hardly saw action in week 2 (only 33% of snaps). It was not until week 3 he was inserted into a significant role. He also missed parts of the Oakland and Cleveland games due to injury and early exits. He then missed the final 3 games after being IR'd.

So what does this tell me/you? Tate missed the entirety of 4 games and significant parts of 3 others. If you project out these stats over a 16 game season (adding a conservative 5 games of missed production) they look like this... 54 catches, 815 yards.

--- While he didn't score much, I don't think that is a concern. Scoring is not only not a weakness but it is a strength.

Looking at his frame, 6'5, 230 it's obvious he's a red zone threat just by sheer size. But again, if you dig deeper it's even more apparent.

This was considered his strength coming out of FSU. Why? Despite only starting 8 games his last year, due to a separated shoulder, he managed 10 TD's.

The lack of TDs last year may stand out on a stat sheet but I don't think it's all that telling in regards to skill. I think it can be easily explained due to lack of opportunites and situational factors (Bad team with below average scoring, bad play-calling, undefined role and missed time, etc.)

---His YPC, at 14.4 is strong, especially for a player who dropped due to perceived lack of speed.

He averaged almost 3 full yards more per reception than a more than capable Tyler Boyd. Outside of the one-trick pony that is John Ross, Tate had the highest YPC on the team.

---40 times are over-valued and don't translate well...

If you wondered why a guy with this size, coming out of FSU, falls to where he did, the answer is simple: His 40 time. He ran a 4.68.

The problem with this is that 40 times are way over-valued. Running in shorts is not the same as running in full gear. Running in a routine drill, out of a stance, on a track, and to the sound of a gun is not the same as running in a game, out of standing position, on a grass field, to the sound of a QB in a high-stress envioroment. Nor do players run straight routes, without interference. You are getting checked at the line, and often are breaking inside or outside around the defender.

Keep in mind, Anquan Boldin ran a 4.71. TJ Housh didn't even run at the combine and is supposedly in similar territory. Jerry Rice and Terrell Owens both reportably ran in the 4.6's.

---His age and experience. He came out early as a Junior. He didn't see exactly a ton of starts in his 3 years either.  He also saw very limited action in his rookie year. He was then thrust in his role late this offseason because of AJ.

With a year of significant experience and a full off-season of a defined role, I think it will help. All things considered, I think he did phenominal last year.

---Intagibles. I think we can all agree he's a pretty tough kid. He made a slew of tough catches, he bounced back from a brutal hit, he never shyed away from going across the middle. What else?

His blocking, for me, was encouraging. He looked to be willing to take on that aspect of the game much like a TJ or Sanu did. Some receivers want to run their routes and may throw a half-arsed block here and there, but really don't want to mix it up a bunch. (Cough: John Ross) Tate laid the wood a few times.

Also, I found this interesting. Tate only had 6 penalties on the year, and they were all holds or blocking penalties. He had no false starts, no lining up offsides, no personal fouls, no PI's.  Basically I take that as zero mental penalties, all effort penalties.

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I'll wrap it up. Obviously I like the kid. I like tough players. I'll take tough players over track-stars. (Tate vs. Ross). To me Tate is a football player and Ross is not. I think Tate was completely overlooked coming out and was a steal. And I'm really anxious to see him develop. I'm also concerned about taking reps from him and wasting cap dollars by bringing AJ back. Save the money for OL, and let this kid play with Boyd as your 1/2.

The Tate vs Ross comparisons go off the rails when you prorate Ross's production in a similar fashion to Tate's.  Ross would have hypothetically had 1000+ yards and 6 TD's if he stayed healthy.  There's no legitimate case to make Tate #2 over Ross.

However, that also highlights their biggest similarity.  They are both injury prone.  

Regardless of which one fits anyone's particular tastes better, both Ross and Tate are unreliable due to their injury history.  Bringing back an injury prone AJ isn't the answer, either.  They need to double dip in a deep WR class.