Who are your 2020 Reds Breakout player, Comeback player and Top 2 Newcomers?

[CJD]

Breakout . . . Nick Senzel

This may be a bit of a low hanging fruit pick, because he was the No. 2 overall pick a few years back and was our star prospect going into 2019 but it just makes too much sense.

Senzel did not end the year with the greatest numbers on earth, ending the season at .256/.315/.427/.742. However, as this article notes, Nick Senzel actually changed his swing late in the season last year on August 2nd. On that day, his line was .285/.345/.474/.819.
From that day forward, he hit .181/.239/.305/.544 in 115 PA.

Those 115 PAs dragged his average and OBP down almost 30 points and dragged his Slugging down almost 50 points. Now, there's no guarantee that had he not changed his swing, he would have stayed at the .285 clip for the final month and a half of the season (as he was injured late in the year), but that precipitous drop is undeniably linked to his change in swing. There's speculation that Turner Ward was fired because he screwed up Senzel's swing.

Now, Senzel is back in camp and swinging like he did before August 2nd and Senzel has commented that he has indeed reverted back to his previous swing.

I think this season we could reasonably expect him to reach .280/.350/.450 for a full season, with the potential for a .300/.400/.500 season out of him if he remains healthy. For a starting CF, those numbers would be incredible and undeniably constitute the term "break out year."

Comeback . . . Trevor Bauer

He played like shit for us, to the tune of a 1.35 WHIP and 6.39 ERA in 10 starts. Even if he reverts back to the pre-trade Trevor Bauer, with a 1.21 WHIP, 3.79 ERA in 24 starts, that's still a marked improvement and would make him our third best starter behind Castillo and Gray. If he reverts back to his 2018 self, with a 1.09 WHIP and 2.21 ERA in 27 starts, then that would be incredible. Regardless of which metric he hits, he basically has nowhere to go but up.

Newcomer . . .  Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama

I love Moose and Akiyama, but both have a considerable risks.
Moose has never been an OBP guy and is playing out of position at 2B, which could cause us some defensive woes. His signing was a great sign of the change that the owners and coaches planned for the team, but he doesn't profile as a super star.

Akiyama could be amazing and has the potential to be a star lead off hitter, but he had a down year in 2019 (relative to 2017 and 2018), is turning 32 this year and is coming from another league and another country. Will his skills translate to the MLB? It's unclear. There have been a few poor transitions from Japanese players in the past decade and they don't throw nearly as hard in Japan, so whether or not Akiyama can keep up with the MLB fastball will be something to keep an eye on.

But Castellanos...that man is coming off his best (half) season in his career with the Chicago Cubs, led the major leagues in doubles and has generally been a extra base hit machine his entire career. He spent the majority of his career in Detroit, where home runs go to die, so the odds of him having a career year playing half his games in GABP are pretty good. In 52 games in Chicago, he hit .321/.356/.646/1.002. I don't expect him to replicate that, but even if he stays on his career line of .277/.326/.471/.797, which includes two very poor years in the beginning of his career, he would still be a massive upgrade to this team. If he falls in between those two lines, we have a legitimate star signing. In addition to all that, he's only turning 28 this year and is signed for 4 years (although he has opt out clauses after the first and second year, so I have a feeling he won't be a Red in 2022 and maybe not even 2021.) We're getting his prime years.