Full offseason of changes and mock

[Whatever]

(02-24-2020, 12:20 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: How much do you think Andy Dalton is worth in straight draft capital?

Because everyone in the universe knows that the Bengals will cut him if they can't trade him.

So the only benefit to trading for him rather than waiting for him to be cut and then signing him is if his contract were particularly friendly or if there was a risk that the player, given his choice, would choose not to sign with your team, thus making the deal with the Bengals rather than Dalton himself would be required to get Dalton on your team.

I find it hard to believe that 17.7 million for Dalton's services would be considered a particularly friendly contract. Especially with the number of QBs being available this off season. Because of the wealth of starting QBs available in free agency, I don't see Dalton being in such high demand that the Bears would risk missing out because of being outbid. Especially when, as you said, the Bears are strapped for cap space.

If I were to estimate Dalton's worth as a trade piece, the high end would be a mid 4th round pick. I'd be absolutely shocked if the Bengals could convert him into a 3rd round pick, given the obvious nature of his lack of a future with the team.

So, basically, you're saying Roquan Smith, a top 10 pick at LB with all the physical tools you could ever dream of for his position, is worth less than the value difference between a mid 4th round pick and a 5th round pick?

How do you figure that they will cut him if they can't trade him?  So they can have another $17 mil to spend on outside FA's?

If they can't trade him before the draft, then they'll likely use him as a veteran mentor for Burrow and potentially try to move him before the trade deadline to a team who's QB goes down.

I've seen articles where NFL personnel people think he will fetch a 2nd.  It doesn't make a lot of sense to move him for less than an early 3rd because he'll likely fetch a 3rd round comp pick when he hits FA next year.  That's something that teams who trade for him will look at if they don't want to sign him long term.  They'll get a high comp pick back for him.  The trade is really for Andy Dalton plus a 2022 3rd round pick.

There are a lot of FA QB's this year, but the talk is that several of them will break the $30 mil a year barrier.  $17 mil is a bargain by comparison, particularly if you're eying next year's QB class.  

There are tons of guys in the NFL that are great athletes, but not great football players.  That's what Roquan Smith is until he proves differently.  It's actually very easy for a LB who's good at play recognition to make up for .1-.2 in the 40 on most snaps over a fast LB that's slow to read and react.  Smith is a reclamation project that has a high probability of not panning out.  Andy is a proven solid starter at the most important position in football.