Full offseason of changes and mock

[CJD]

(02-24-2020, 01:14 PM)Whatever Wrote: How do you figure that they will cut him if they can't trade him?  So they can have another $17 mil to spend on outside FA's?

If they can't trade him before the draft, then they'll likely use him as a veteran mentor for Burrow and potentially try to move him before the trade deadline to a team who's QB goes down.

I've seen articles where NFL personnel people think he will fetch a 2nd.  It doesn't make a lot of sense to move him for less than an early 3rd because he'll likely fetch a 3rd round comp pick when he hits FA next year.  That's something that teams who trade for him will look at if they don't want to sign him long term.  They'll get a high comp pick back for him.  The trade is really for Andy Dalton plus a 2022 3rd round pick.

There are a lot of FA QB's this year, but the talk is that several of them will break the $30 mil a year barrier.  $17 mil is a bargain by comparison, particularly if you're eying next year's QB class.  

There are tons of guys in the NFL that are great athletes, but not great football players.  That's what Roquan Smith is until he proves differently.  It's actually very easy for a LB who's good at play recognition to make up for .1-.2 in the 40 on most snaps over a fast LB that's slow to read and react.  Smith is a reclamation project that has a high probability of not panning out.  Andy is a proven solid starter at the most important position in football.

I hope you're right.

I too have seen the articles where they're projecting that we'd get a 2nd round pick for Dalton.

If that's the case, I'd be ecstatic. But I just can't imagine that happening. Maybe it's just my pessimism that has built up over the years.

The way I see it, there are 7 Free agent QBs that could start day 1 for any team that decides to sign them: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill, Dak Prescott, Jameis Winston, Philip Rivers and Teddy Bridgewater.

The teams that I think are in the market for a starting QB are:
New England Patriots
Dallas Cowboys
Chicago Bears
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
LA Chargers
Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati Bengals

Then there are the teams that are looking for a Starting QB in the next two years, depending on if and when they plan on blowing it all up and starting from scratch:

Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
Carolina Panthers
Detroit Lions
Las Vegas Raiders

The second list would likely not be interested in Andy Dalton, since his contract is only 1 year remaining and he isn't really someone you start a rebuild around. So let's focus on the top list.

The Patriots, Cowboys and Saints are almost certainly going to attempt to sign their QBs back. It'll be interesting to see what happens with them, but I expect them all to do it (I'd be surprised if Tom Brady really did go to the Chargers, or any of those other rumors going on right now).

That leaves the Chargers, who already said they're moving on from Rivers, the Titans, Bucs and Bears.

The Titans are likely going to try to get Tannehill back. If they can't sign him long term, I'm expecting to see the franchise tag. Do I think that's a good idea? No, not necessarily. Especially if they don't re-sign Henry (I'm not sure if they will or not). But that means they're probably not in the Dalton fight either.

That leaves the Chargers, Bucs and Bears.

As I mentioned above, Winston, Rivers and Bridgewater are available. There have been reports that the Bears and Chargers are both pursuing Bridgewater, with the Bucs also loosely associated with him. I assume one of them will be able to secure his services.

If it's the Chargers, that's probably worst for us, because that means the Bears will have the choice between Winston and Rivers for a starting level QB off the free agent market.

Hopefully, the Bucs ultimately land Bridgewater, because that means the only option the Chargers have in free agency is Winston since they are already moving on from Rivers. It also means the Bears still have no starting QB and would be more likely to trade for Dalton.

And this is all without taking the draft into account. The Chargers could very well draft Herbert as their expected week 1 starter. Especially since the Chargers aren't really a Dalton away from competing in the AFC West.

That would basically leave 2 teams in need with 3 potential starting QBs on the free agent market. Basically, no matter how you arrange the chairs on the deck there are currently more starting QBs available than there are teams that need starting QBs. 

And when supply is higher than demand, cost goes down. Since Chicago knows that they're one of, maybe, two teams that would be willing to trade for Dalton before the draft, the likelihood that we get a 2nd round pick is very slim, in my opinion.

I think you're right that the Bengals best bet for getting anything of value out of Dalton is to keep him until the trade deadline and hope someone's starter gets injured. 

I just wish they had done that last trade deadline...

Also, the idea that Dalton would sign a contract large enough to fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick is pretty...out there. The free agents that are projected to fetch a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2020 draft were around 13 to 22 million per year. The contract that Andy Dalton signs in free agency in 2021 is probably going to be in the 5 to 10 million range, the average salary of a backup QB in the NFL, which would fetch maybe a 4th or a 5th rounder. But we'd have to hang onto Dalton's entire 17.7 million dollar contract in order to get that pick.

If we cut Dalton or trade him now, we could potentially use that money in free agency. And I know the counter argument to that is "Hah! the idea that the Bengals would do anything in free agency is laughable." I get that. I really do. But this is the first year in quite a while where we don't have a QB on a 10+ million dollar contract and very few, if any, major free agents or extensions that are "must signs" like we have in the past with Atkins, Dunlap, Green etc. (Green is still there, but I'm not sure what we're gonna do with him.) And the big bosses have said they are prepared to be more active in free agency than in the past.

I guess we'll just have to wait and see how it unfolds.