03-23-2020, 05:05 PM
I think we're in for a 5 week non-working, non-buying pause. It will be damaging either way, but what steps are taken to protect American workers and businesses will play a big role. If you read the tea leaves, I think it's extremely likely that a national lockdown is coming soon.
Once there's a clear resolution, ie vaccine or herd immunity, people will be itching to get out and do the things that they haven't been able to do for the duration of the quarantine. It's just a matter of how jacked up their employment status/income will be when we get there.
If the government goes the intermittent pause route, stemming the spread for prolonged periods, then allowing business (sort of) to proceed as normal, I look for an extremely slow recovery. The fatigue will weigh on people, an the not knowing of when the next lockdown comes will take a toll on confidence.
Once there's a clear resolution, ie vaccine or herd immunity, people will be itching to get out and do the things that they haven't been able to do for the duration of the quarantine. It's just a matter of how jacked up their employment status/income will be when we get there.
If the government goes the intermittent pause route, stemming the spread for prolonged periods, then allowing business (sort of) to proceed as normal, I look for an extremely slow recovery. The fatigue will weigh on people, an the not knowing of when the next lockdown comes will take a toll on confidence.
