Bills Fan Here...

[BonnieBengal]

(10-15-2015, 03:44 PM)thebandit27 Wrote: Hello, and good luck this Sunday.

I’ve started this thread to promote discussion (not necessarily trash talk, but do what you must) of this Sunday’s game, and to clear up a few misconceptions I read on your board.

First off, you’re all visiting the WRONG forum for real Bills discussion.  There’s no forum like The Stadium Wall over at twobillsdrive.com.  Here’s the link:

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/forum/1-the-stadium-wall/

Now, onto what you need to know about the Bills for this Sunday.

Offensively…

The skill position players are very good.  No joke.  Sammy Watkins is a stud; don’t let the middling numbers from his rookie year fool you.  He had over 900 yards and 6 TDs (quite comparable with AJ Green and Julio Jones as rookies) playing in Doug Marrone and Nate Hackett’s offense, with Kyle Orton at QB.  He needs to be doubled or have coverage rolled to him at all times.  Let me put it this way: the Colts have Vontae Davis, one of the top 5 CBs in the NFL, and they covered Sammy with Davis AND a safety over the top about 90% of the time.

Behind Sammy, Robert Woods and Percy Harvin have been consistently getting open against single coverage.  Marquise Goodwin is one of the 3 fastest players in football (behind only Chris Johnson and Dri Archer), and needs to be accounted for when he’s in the game (I’m sure you all remember his last-minute TD to tie the game against Cincinnati two years ago).  Chris Hogan is an underrated athlete who can make plays.

Charles Clay has been a great get as a FA, as he’s been a reliable safety valve.  There were plays last week where Tennessee was triple-covering Clay (you can do that with Sammy out of the lineup).

The RB position has been racked with injuries, and it looks like we’ll be down at least Karlos Williams this Sunday, which takes the “hammer” element out of the run game.  Shady seems more likely to play than I might have expected, which is a huge bonus, as I’d be worried about Boom Herron carrying the load.  Nevertheless, this team can run the ball pretty reliably, averaging 4.3 YPC, which ranks 8th in the NFL.

The offensive line is pretty solid from LT to C, but weakens as you move toward the right side.  Rookie RG John Miller has been a roller coaster, while second-year RT Seantrel Henderson has underwhelmed to say the least.  If I’m Paul Guenther, this is where I’m attacking Buffalo’s front.

QB-wise, Taylor has been exciting, though erratic at times.  He is an exceptional athlete, and has a very, very good deep ball.  If he’s healthy, he’s a real dual-threat.  Amongst starting QBs, he ranks 11th in YPA and 7th in passer rating and completion percentage.  If he can’t go, the drop off to EJ Manuel isn’t huge, but they are definitely different players.  EJ can’t kill you in the run game, but he’s almost Big Ben-like in his ability to extend the play.  He’s also got a terrific deep arm, though it seems his release isn’t quite as quick as Taylor’s.  He does, however, hit the seam throws better than Taylor does.

Defensively…

The defensive line needs no introduction.  They are all dominant in their own ways.  Jerry Hughes is a force on the edge; he absolutely owned Joe Thomas to the point where Cleveland was giving the best LT in the game help against him.  Dareus is a monster against both the run and the pass.  Kyle Williams looks like your typical lunch-pail guy, but watch him drop into coverage and chase down Marcus Mariota at full-stride, and you know he’s an athlete.  Mario Williams is an anchor against the run, and needs to be doubled in pass-protection.  In short, these four are the biggest reason this team is 7th in yards/carry allowed, 4th in yards/pass attempt allowed, and 6th in QB rating against.

I’ve seen some banter on this board that Buffalo isn’t as good on the back end…that’s false.  The boundary corners are as good a pairing as there is in the NFL.  Yes, I said that, and I mean it.  Stephon Gilmore and Ronald Darby rank 3rd and 2nd in the NFL in passes defended, and are both ranked in the top 5 in QB rating against when targeted by opposing QBs.  Keep in mind that this is a pairing that faced Tom Brady, Andrew Luck, and Eli Manning thus far.  Slot CB Nickell Robey is small, but very aggressive and an excellent blitzer.

The safety play has been inconsistent, as both Corey Graham and Aaron Williams have missed some time, as has primary backup Bacarri Rambo.  With Williams now on IR-DTR, and Rambo still recovering from a Week 4 injury, Duke Williams will get the call opposite Corey Graham on Sunday.  To any Bills’ fan, that’s scary.  I’d look for Rex to use Duke as a blitzer as often as he can, since that’s his best skill to this point.

The LB trio of Preston Brown, Nigel Bradham, and Manny Lawson are a mixed bag.  Brown is sensational against the run, but middling against the pass.  Manny Lawson is the exact opposite, though he played the run very well last week against Tennessee.  Bradham hits like a truck, but he tends to get very aggressive and over-pursue.

How I’d game plan against Cincinnati…

On defense, I’m looking to neutralize Green and Eifert first and foremost.  I’m probably sticking Gilmore on Green, because he’s bigger and a bit more physical than Darby, and I think Gilmore wants the assignment given that last time around he was trying to play against Green with a massive club over his hand and couldn’t tackle for anything.  I don’t expect Gilmore to shut him down altogether, but I think he’ll hold his own.  I’d then expect Darby to play the boundary against either Jones or Sanu—Bengals fans won’t like hearing this, but I feel really comfortable that Darby wins that match-up.  Robey draws slot duty against whichever of Jones or Sanu doesn’t line up on the boundary…that’s probably a 50/50 match-up, since both sides are fairly accomplished.

With regard to Eifert, I’d expect bracket zone coverage where Lawson draws the short zone (he’s got excellent speed for a LB—ran a sub-4.5 at the combine years ago).  I think this would’ve been Aaron Williams’ assignment had he been healthy since he’s their biggest safety, but I don’t think I want Corey Graham, who’s only 5’11”, matching against the much bigger Eifert 1-on-1.  More likely that Lawson draws the short zone and Graham plays over the top.

In the run game, I’m letting the DL plus Brown/Bradham patrol the box, which they’ve done quite well through 5 weeks.

For me, the biggest concern is handling Bernard out of the backfield, since you can’t exactly get a jam on a guy that lines up 12-15 yards from the coverage.  I’ll be interested to see how Rex game plans for that.

Offensively, I’m looking to exploit Cinci’s run defense, which is 29th in the NFL at 4.8 YPC allowed.  I’d look to compliment that with intermediate route combinations on the boundary and interior isolation concepts that get Clay matched up with either a LB or a safety, where he’ll win that matchup much of the time.

There’s your primer on your opponent this Sunday.  If you have questions or comments, feel free; I’m happy to answer.  As I said before, I don’t really talk trash, but do what you must…just don’t get upset if you say something patently incorrect and I’m forced to educate you (haha).

The Bills are up and coming, no doubt.  Rex Ryan is a heck of a coach.  Watkins is a stud, no doubt.  

Because I'm curious, I've never understood what happened to Percy Harvin and why he's mostly underwhelming these days.  Got any insight?

I don't think our run d is as bad as the numbers say, though the stats I'm looking at say we're 21st, not 29th.  Jamal Charles of the Chiefs hit us pretty well as did Woodhead from the Chargers.  We still won those games though.   I think it's pretty early on and those numbers will swing a lot.  

I didn't notice anything about our D line in your novel above.    We've had 15 total sacks already, that's 3 per game.  Atkins has to be double teamed and Dunlap has 5 sacks by himself already.  

I don't think you have the answer for Green and I do expect him to have a big day Sunday.  I'm sure trying to cover both Green and Eifert is a nightmare.  Then you also have to worry about Jones, Sanu, and Bernard.  In our rushing game, I think Jeremy Hill's coming back with a vengeance this week.  He's a talented kid who is having a bit of a sophomore slump but will find his way.