03-30-2020, 12:25 PM
(03-30-2020, 09:47 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Here is the realistic possibility: The Jags are not the only team that could use Dalton. LAC and New England also could. LA is going to have a tough time selling Tyrod Taylor to their fan base as they enter a new stadium. Although they are talking a good game, they could still be in play for Dalton and are just seeing what shakes out in the draft. If the Lions take Tua (they should) and the Dolphins are left with Herbert, then LA may be in need of a QB. Sure, ideally this would ideally play out before this year's draft for the Bengals and Dalton, but that is very unlikely at this point.
There are still FA signings AFTER the draft, and trades for 2021 draft picks, which would not be all bad for the Bengals.
No one is mentioning the Chargers, but if the top 3 QBs are gone from this year's draft before it gets to them, they could very well be looking for a guy like Dalton.
So could Jax, who picks AFTER the Chargers, if they are unable to get one of the big three in the draft. Their problem? If they are all waiting for Dalton to get released, the Chargers get first dibs (of the teams needing a QB) based on their record from last year.
The Jags aren't just competing against the Pats for a released-Dalton (where they get first dibs before NE) but a Chargers team that doesn't get one of the top 3 QBs in the draft. A very real possibility.
The Pats don't easily part with draft picks and I don't see any players that would really fit the trade mold that make sense for them. However, if they are waiting for Dalton to be released, they would be behind the Chargers, Jags, and likely the Colts who may need a longer term plan (and backup) behind Rivers.
One huge factor about Dalton is his history of being able to digest a new scheme quickly and put it in to action with success. Not every QB has shown that propensity.
If I had to bet, the Jags and Chargers are going to sit and wait for a QB in the draft (Jags COULD be very aggressive and trade up for Tua, as they have a real attendance problem) and if they are left empty handed, they could target Dalton. If the Pats are waiting for Dalton to be released, they are simply not going to get him. In an organization as historically smart as theirs, I doubt they let that happen. If they want Dalton, they will have to move before the draft. I think this is what Cincy is waiting on...and that would sure be taking good care of Dalton.
A nice analysis, in theory. Except by referring to who gets "first dibs" you seem to imply the waiver wire is in play here? Dalton is a veteran, if he's released he's an unrestricted free agent (waiver system for veterans only comes into effect after the trade deadline) and not subject to waivers.
But otherwise interesting run down of QB needy teams. Here's how I see it:
Detroit - I really, really don't think they're in the market for a QB.
Mia - Will come out of this draft with either Tua or Herbert.
LAC - IF nobody trades ahead of them they would get Herbert, but they know CAR probably wants Tua and they'll have to trade up to ensure they get him. They can't afford to not get one of the top 3. So LAC and Miami will be competing to get into Detroit's spot (Det is really in the premium draft slot this year). So I'm convinced Tua will go at 3 one way or another. Then we'll see if bidding for the 4th pick comes into play. If CAR or Miami come out of this without a QB (I doubt it's Miami as they have the most firepower), don't look for them to trade for Dalton. Bridgewater and Fitzpatrick, respectively, would make him redundant. IF it's LAC, and they don't, say, trade down for Love or just take him in the top 10, we'll see how serious they are about Tyrod Taylor. Maybe they like Jacob Eason. And it would make more sense for them to just sign Cam Newton than trade for Dalton anyway.
Jags - Drafting a young QB wouldn't make sense for them. I'm sure Gruden wants Dalton, but it's more of a cap issue with them. Do they want him at 17M? Is he willing to regotiate to facilitate a trade? Or is Dalton thinking what everybody else is: "hey, if I refuse to renegotiate they'll release me, and i'll be able to pick a team AND use the market to leverage a good contract." I mean there are lots of things in play here besides what pick(s) they offer us.
Patriots - Much the same analysis as Jax. But I also think Belichick is more inclined to do something off the wall like draft Jake Fromm in about the third round and go into camp with a competition. Hard to see Belichick blinking in this chicken game we're playing.
Tennessee, Washington, etc... those ships have sailed.
Ultimately it seems that NE and Jax are the only viable options. Personally I think we'll wait and see what transpires during the draft, come up empty, and release him shortly thereafter. Like I said, if the trade hinges on Dalton renegotiating, he can easily refuse and force his release. They might be what's been holding things up all along.
