Post SECOND Wave of FA Draft - CJD

[CJD]

(03-30-2020, 06:01 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I hate to pour water on your parade, but I really think Baun goes in the late first round.  If he offers everything that people say he does, including rushing the passer, why in the world wouldn't he be a 25-32 selection?

This is just who I picked in the simulation that had him falling to me. I see him as Off ball LB #3 in this draft. Historically, it isn't unreasonable at all for off ball LB #3 to be there in the 2nd round. 

In 2019, the 3rd OBLB went at #43
In 2018, the 3rd OBLB went at #19
In 2017, the 3rd OBLB went at #31
In 2016, the 3rd OBLB went at #34
In 2015, the 3rd OBLB went at #43
In 2014, the 3rd OBLB went at #40
In 2013, the 3rd OBLB went at #38
In 2012, the 3rd OBLB went at #35

So the top of the 2nd round is right around where your 3rd Off ball Linebacker should go.

Baun is a little different, as he did rush the passer in college, but all the scouting reports I've read say he is too small to consistently rush the passer and his best fit is as an OLB in a 4-3 who has pass rush as a tool in his tool belt, rather than a primary function.

If a team sees him as a true pass rusher, they may value him more, but even then he'd probably be the 4th ranked pass rusher, behind Young, Chaisson and Gross-Matos (potentially Epenesa if a team sees him as more than a 3-4 end). This is a relatively weak edge class, so there's a chance someone takes him before 33.

But if they do, the Bengals have other directions they can goo. OT, OG/C and WR are still ripe with talent for 33.

And then there's always the trade down, which we've done each of the last 3 years. And considering 33 is the first pick of the 2nd day, that means there's plenty of team for wheeling and dealing and driving up the price for the pick, as I'm sure several teams will be raring to get that one player they thought would be taken in the first round but now they have a shot at.

I am pretty comfortable with our spot at 33. If Baun, Ruiz, Higgins, Queen, Murray, Jefferson, Jones, Mims or maybe Niang is there, you take him. If all those players are taken, I'm sure there's a Love, Epenesa, Gross-Matos or McKinney there that someone would be willing to hand over a 3rd round pick to go get.

We got plenty of options