2020 Official Bengals Message Board Mock Draft Round 2 Summary

[Whatever]

(04-15-2020, 04:56 PM)McC Wrote: The past CAN be a predictor of the future.  But that doesn't mean it always is.

The whole story, to me, is that AJ's greatest value to the Bengals is being a Bengal and not as GB's path to the SB.

I wasn't comparing AJ to Hopkins.  I was using that as an example of utterly awful trades.

It would be wrong for the Bengals to pay AJ 18 mil for the year, but somehow the Packers would want to?  Give me a break.

Mike Brown will not allow himself to be hosed like that.  Thank God.

We'll just agree to disagree because you will never convince me that trade would ever be anything but moronic.

The Bengals baked a nice cake in the off season.  Please don't stop it into dust with such an epically stupid move.

The past isn't a predictor all of the time, but you can apply that logic to anything.  I could just as easily argue that AJ will stay healthy all year and perform worse than Damion Willis last year because the past is not always a predictor of the future.  You look at all the available data and make the best decision based on that.  Every personnel decision every team makes is based on the past.

How so?  The Bengals are in a rebuilding year.  This team isn't close to a SB run.  AJ is in a contract year and it very much seems like no extension is going to happen.  In sports, when a team is rebuilding, they trade aging players with expiring contracts for prospects, draft picks, and cap space to spend on FA's and resign their young players.  Why is AJ Green different?

AJ Green is currently the 4th highest paid WR in the league.  What are the odds AJ is Top 5 in receiving yards this year?  He hasn't even been in the Top 10 since 2015.  What are the odds he misses a significant number of games?  A lot higher.  He has a minimally low chance of producing to a level befitting his contract based on his career production and injury history.  Dumping bad contracts for draft picks is never "idiotic" or "moronic."  I am assuming GB is assuming the risk because they are hoping he can stay healthy enough and produce enough to help put them over the top.  I'm pretty certain they don't expect him to play up to his deal, but they are close.  We are not.

What good teams do is get out from under aging vets on big contracts before they hit the wall.  They either cut them, renegotiate a pay cut, trade them, or let them walk in FA.  That's why Tom Brady is now a Buccaneer.  AJ arguably has already hit the wall.

We can certainly agree to disagree, but when you use terms like "moronic", "idiotic", and "stupid" combined with "you will never convince me", it seems pretty obvious that your objections are based more on an emotional attachment to AJ than any kind of sound logic.  I hope AJ finds the fountain of youth, can stay healthy, signs a new deal, plays like '11-15 AJ until he retires in his 40's as a Bengal with a fistful of SB rings, but it's just not realistic.