04-25-2020, 12:09 PM
I posted this in the draft forum, but it looks like we're not using that forum for draft talk this weekend, so I just reposted it here. Mods can delete the NFL draft forum post, if they'd like.
So, I know some people are really upset we didn't address the Oline in the 2nd day.
I kind of saw this coming, as the Bengals have been talking up Fred Johnson for months, so I was not shocked when we passed on Josh Jones twice. I can definitely see an argument for taking him at 65, but at a certain point you have to start wondering why a player is plummeting down draft boards.
I remember back in 2016, we were all absolutely THRILLED to get what we saw as a 1st round talent in the 4th round with Andrew Billings. Y'all remember the elation we all had when we landed him?
Well, turns out he was a 4th round pick after all and the media was hyping him up, as he was merely a rotational player for us his entire career and then he left for a prove it deal in Cleveland.
So with that in mind, I thought why don't we look at what we could have had in the 2nd day, had we addressed positions in a different order.
So, at 33, there were basically 3 picks that reigned above the rest. Jones, Baun and Higgins.
We know that Indianapolis was going to take a WR at 33 and there were reports and rumors (and betting odds) that they were targeting Higgins. So, if we didn't draft Higgins at 33, he almost certainly wasn't making it to 65. The fact that 6 other WRs went between 34 and 65 further attests to the idea that we weren't going to get a WR of Higgins' quality at 65.
Baun and Jones, on the other hand, were both still there at 65. So, clearly, taking them at 33 would have been a rather massive reach, at least from the perspective of the NFL GMs. And the Bengals saw Baun at 65 and took Logan Wilson instead, indicating that they very clearly got "their guy" at LB and didn't have to settle for a different player than they wanted. Zac even attested to the fact that they were extremely excited and nervous as they saw each pick come off the board because they didn't think Wilson would fall to then at 65.
We're sitting here and looking at pick 107 and there are still a bevy of quality offensive linemen available there. So, with that in mind, let's mix and match WR, LB and OL and see what other combinations we could come out of this draft with in these 3 rounds:
Option A. WR, LB, OL
Higgins, Wilson, John Simpson/Netane Muti/Tyler Biadasz/Prince Tega Wanogho/Ben Bartch/Saahdiq Charles
Obviously, we can go with the actual result as our first option. We got Higgins, Willson and we can pick between John Simpson, Prince Tega Wanogho, Nick Harris or a group of other players at 107.
Option B. WR, OL, LB
Higgins, Jones/Niang/Jackson, Akeem Davis Gaither/Troy Dye/Wilson (maybe)
In this option, you could go Higgins (Or Mims or Pittman if you'd like), and then the top Olinemen on the board at 65 were Josh Jones and Lucas Niang or Jonah Jackson.
For LB in the 4th round, Dye and ADG offer some pass coverage ability, but probably don't play on 1st down much due to their struggles with stopping the run. There's a remote chance that Logan Wilson lasts to the 4th round. We can't possibly know for sure, since we took him at 65, but the possibility is there, though I'd be surprised, personally.
Option C. LB, WR, OL
Josh Uche/Willie Gay Jr, Lynn Bowden/Bryan Edwards/Devin Duvernay, John Simpson/Netane Muti/Tyler Biadasz/Prince Tega Wanogho/Ben Bartch/Saahdiq Charles
This is similar to option A, but with WR and LB swapped. The WR options in the 3rd round were significantly weaker than the ones in the 2nd round, but you could still get a player like Bryan Edwards, who has a chance to contribute early and, in exchange, you can "upgrade" Wilson to Gay Jr or Josh Uche (if you consider that an upgrade).
Option D. LB, OL, WR
Josh Uche/Willie Gay Jr, Jones/Niang/Jackson, Donovan Peoples-Jones/K.J Hill/Tyler Johnson
If there's one thing this exercise highlights, it's how quickly the WR value drops across rounds, as waiting until the 4th round to fill WR looks like...a pretty clearly bad idea. That's not to say DPJ, Johnson or Hill are bad players, necessarily, but you can see the drop in quality from the 2nd round to the 3rd round to the 4th round much more sharply, in my opinion, than the other positions. No one in the 4th round even profiles as a day 1 starter, let alone a future #1 WR.
Option E. OL, LB, WR
Robert Hunt/Ezra Cleveland, Logan Wilson, Donovan Peoples-Jones/K.J Hill/Tyler Johnson
At 65, we got our LB, so I don't think that pick would change if we flipped OL and WR. So Wilson would still be the pick in this option. But you can get a Hunt or Cleveland in exchange for Higgins (not many 2nd round offensive linemen, interestingly enough).
Option F. OL, WR, LB
Robert Hunt/Ezra Cleveland, Lynn Bowden/Bryan Edwards/Devin Duvernay, Akeem Davis Gaither/Troy Dye/Wilson (maybe)
No new position/round combinations here, so just listing the same prospects.
So, what do you think? Using hindsight and seeing who was picked and when, is there a configuration you'd prefer to go with?
So, I know some people are really upset we didn't address the Oline in the 2nd day.
I kind of saw this coming, as the Bengals have been talking up Fred Johnson for months, so I was not shocked when we passed on Josh Jones twice. I can definitely see an argument for taking him at 65, but at a certain point you have to start wondering why a player is plummeting down draft boards.
I remember back in 2016, we were all absolutely THRILLED to get what we saw as a 1st round talent in the 4th round with Andrew Billings. Y'all remember the elation we all had when we landed him?
Well, turns out he was a 4th round pick after all and the media was hyping him up, as he was merely a rotational player for us his entire career and then he left for a prove it deal in Cleveland.
So with that in mind, I thought why don't we look at what we could have had in the 2nd day, had we addressed positions in a different order.
So, at 33, there were basically 3 picks that reigned above the rest. Jones, Baun and Higgins.
We know that Indianapolis was going to take a WR at 33 and there were reports and rumors (and betting odds) that they were targeting Higgins. So, if we didn't draft Higgins at 33, he almost certainly wasn't making it to 65. The fact that 6 other WRs went between 34 and 65 further attests to the idea that we weren't going to get a WR of Higgins' quality at 65.
Baun and Jones, on the other hand, were both still there at 65. So, clearly, taking them at 33 would have been a rather massive reach, at least from the perspective of the NFL GMs. And the Bengals saw Baun at 65 and took Logan Wilson instead, indicating that they very clearly got "their guy" at LB and didn't have to settle for a different player than they wanted. Zac even attested to the fact that they were extremely excited and nervous as they saw each pick come off the board because they didn't think Wilson would fall to then at 65.
We're sitting here and looking at pick 107 and there are still a bevy of quality offensive linemen available there. So, with that in mind, let's mix and match WR, LB and OL and see what other combinations we could come out of this draft with in these 3 rounds:
Option A. WR, LB, OL
Higgins, Wilson, John Simpson/Netane Muti/Tyler Biadasz/Prince Tega Wanogho/Ben Bartch/Saahdiq Charles
Obviously, we can go with the actual result as our first option. We got Higgins, Willson and we can pick between John Simpson, Prince Tega Wanogho, Nick Harris or a group of other players at 107.
Option B. WR, OL, LB
Higgins, Jones/Niang/Jackson, Akeem Davis Gaither/Troy Dye/Wilson (maybe)
In this option, you could go Higgins (Or Mims or Pittman if you'd like), and then the top Olinemen on the board at 65 were Josh Jones and Lucas Niang or Jonah Jackson.
For LB in the 4th round, Dye and ADG offer some pass coverage ability, but probably don't play on 1st down much due to their struggles with stopping the run. There's a remote chance that Logan Wilson lasts to the 4th round. We can't possibly know for sure, since we took him at 65, but the possibility is there, though I'd be surprised, personally.
Option C. LB, WR, OL
Josh Uche/Willie Gay Jr, Lynn Bowden/Bryan Edwards/Devin Duvernay, John Simpson/Netane Muti/Tyler Biadasz/Prince Tega Wanogho/Ben Bartch/Saahdiq Charles
This is similar to option A, but with WR and LB swapped. The WR options in the 3rd round were significantly weaker than the ones in the 2nd round, but you could still get a player like Bryan Edwards, who has a chance to contribute early and, in exchange, you can "upgrade" Wilson to Gay Jr or Josh Uche (if you consider that an upgrade).
Option D. LB, OL, WR
Josh Uche/Willie Gay Jr, Jones/Niang/Jackson, Donovan Peoples-Jones/K.J Hill/Tyler Johnson
If there's one thing this exercise highlights, it's how quickly the WR value drops across rounds, as waiting until the 4th round to fill WR looks like...a pretty clearly bad idea. That's not to say DPJ, Johnson or Hill are bad players, necessarily, but you can see the drop in quality from the 2nd round to the 3rd round to the 4th round much more sharply, in my opinion, than the other positions. No one in the 4th round even profiles as a day 1 starter, let alone a future #1 WR.
Option E. OL, LB, WR
Robert Hunt/Ezra Cleveland, Logan Wilson, Donovan Peoples-Jones/K.J Hill/Tyler Johnson
At 65, we got our LB, so I don't think that pick would change if we flipped OL and WR. So Wilson would still be the pick in this option. But you can get a Hunt or Cleveland in exchange for Higgins (not many 2nd round offensive linemen, interestingly enough).
Option F. OL, WR, LB
Robert Hunt/Ezra Cleveland, Lynn Bowden/Bryan Edwards/Devin Duvernay, Akeem Davis Gaither/Troy Dye/Wilson (maybe)
No new position/round combinations here, so just listing the same prospects.
So, what do you think? Using hindsight and seeing who was picked and when, is there a configuration you'd prefer to go with?
![[Image: oN5QAdY.png]](https://i.imgur.com/oN5QAdY.png)
