05-05-2020, 03:32 PM
Here's the flaw I see. This extensive analysis shows us how we improved upon what we were last year. But we were the worst team in the league last year. Most NFL teams use the offseason to improve their roster (except for teams in cap hell like the Steelers), so just improving upon what you were doesn't by definition translate to more wins. It's more like a margin utility thing - the team that improves more than other teams improve will see an improvement in record, and even then marginally.
With that said, we probably did make a much bigger net improvement than most of our opponents, so we'll be better. But our opponents didn't sit around twiddling thumbs all year. And yes we're getting injured players back, but aren't other teams? And won't we have new injuries this year?
I do think we're on the right track, but my expectations are modest. The AFC North will be brutal, and I think we're looking at a sub-.500 finish and last place in the division again. Maybe if Roethlisberger doesn't come back to full form we'll take third place. But Cleveland's problem last year was bad coaching, and they've addressed that, and Baltimore is going to be unstoppable.
With that said, we probably did make a much bigger net improvement than most of our opponents, so we'll be better. But our opponents didn't sit around twiddling thumbs all year. And yes we're getting injured players back, but aren't other teams? And won't we have new injuries this year?
I do think we're on the right track, but my expectations are modest. The AFC North will be brutal, and I think we're looking at a sub-.500 finish and last place in the division again. Maybe if Roethlisberger doesn't come back to full form we'll take third place. But Cleveland's problem last year was bad coaching, and they've addressed that, and Baltimore is going to be unstoppable.
