05-05-2020, 03:54 PM
Improving from one year to the next is more about how much we improve relative to how much other teams' improve, not how much we improve relative to last year. So you can't just tally all the improvements we made on paper and how many injured players are coming back and count on an awesome season. This time of the year every fan in the NFL can use that logic!
I do think the team is moving in the right direction. But I sincerely think the floor this year is 4 wins. That could happen. I'm not going to put a ceiling on it, because I prefer to think in terms of "what would have to go right" to get those 11 or 12 wins versus "what could possibly go wrong" to have another crappy year. And the latter just seems more realistic.
What would have to go right: Burrow is a ROY candidate right out of the gate. Mike Jordan and Germaine Pratt make massive second year leaps. Either AJ stays healthy and regains his previous form or Ross stays healthy and breaks out. That 'Fred Johnson is a diamond in the rough' narrative the team has been pushing turns out legit. Motivated by being in a contract year, WJIII learns how to play the ball. We have ZERO injuries on the OL. Not all, but we'd need SOME combination of these things to happen.
What could go wrong: Geno's problems last year turn out not to be just the situation and he falls off a major cliff. That Fred Johnson narrative is the same crap we heard with Westerman, Redmond and others. AJ and Ross still can't stay healthy, and Higgins plays like a rookie WR. Jonah Williams plays like he hasn't played football in a year. Pratt has as sophomore slump and most of the rest of our LBs are rookies. Anarumo just turns out to be a terrible coordinator and is fired by the end of the year (God forbid that turns out to be true of Taylor - as somebody else pointed out, we still don't know what kind of coach we have on our hands here). Burrow's rookie year is mediocre behind a swiss cheese OL and another battered receiver corps but hey we have the best blocking TE in football (Sample). Mixon whines about his contract all year.
So yes many scenarios are possible but some version of the latter just seems more realistic to me.
I do think the team is moving in the right direction. But I sincerely think the floor this year is 4 wins. That could happen. I'm not going to put a ceiling on it, because I prefer to think in terms of "what would have to go right" to get those 11 or 12 wins versus "what could possibly go wrong" to have another crappy year. And the latter just seems more realistic.
What would have to go right: Burrow is a ROY candidate right out of the gate. Mike Jordan and Germaine Pratt make massive second year leaps. Either AJ stays healthy and regains his previous form or Ross stays healthy and breaks out. That 'Fred Johnson is a diamond in the rough' narrative the team has been pushing turns out legit. Motivated by being in a contract year, WJIII learns how to play the ball. We have ZERO injuries on the OL. Not all, but we'd need SOME combination of these things to happen.
What could go wrong: Geno's problems last year turn out not to be just the situation and he falls off a major cliff. That Fred Johnson narrative is the same crap we heard with Westerman, Redmond and others. AJ and Ross still can't stay healthy, and Higgins plays like a rookie WR. Jonah Williams plays like he hasn't played football in a year. Pratt has as sophomore slump and most of the rest of our LBs are rookies. Anarumo just turns out to be a terrible coordinator and is fired by the end of the year (God forbid that turns out to be true of Taylor - as somebody else pointed out, we still don't know what kind of coach we have on our hands here). Burrow's rookie year is mediocre behind a swiss cheese OL and another battered receiver corps but hey we have the best blocking TE in football (Sample). Mixon whines about his contract all year.
So yes many scenarios are possible but some version of the latter just seems more realistic to me.
