05-05-2020, 04:48 PM
(05-05-2020, 03:54 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: What would have to go right: Burrow is a ROY candidate right out of the gate. Mike Jordan and Germaine Pratt make massive second year leaps. Either AJ stays healthy and regains his previous form or Ross stays healthy and breaks out. That 'Fred Johnson is a diamond in the rough' narrative the team has been pushing turns out legit. Motivated by being in a contract year, WJIII learns how to play the ball. We have ZERO injuries on the OL. Not all, but we'd need SOME combination of these things to happen.
What could go wrong: Geno's problems last year turn out not to be just the situation and he falls off a major cliff. That Fred Johnson narrative is the same crap we heard with Westerman, Redmond and others. AJ and Ross still can't stay healthy, and Higgins plays like a rookie WR. Jonah Williams plays like he hasn't played football in a year. Pratt has as sophomore slump and most of the rest of our LBs are rookies. Anarumo just turns out to be a terrible coordinator and is fired by the end of the year (God forbid that turns out to be true of Taylor - as somebody else pointed out, we still don't know what kind of coach we have on our hands here). Burrow's rookie year is mediocre behind a swiss cheese OL and another battered receiver corps but hey we have the best blocking TE in football (Sample). Mixon whines about his contract all year.
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This is an excellent break down of most of the big questions facing this team. I doubt all will go bad, but I also doubt all will go good. I have strong opinions on most of these issues, but I am going to try and list the "reasonable" opinion on each.
Williams and Burrow play up to draft status...."LIKELY"...I know we have missed on a few early round picks recently, but over time it averages out, and even though the draft is mostly a crap shoot more first round picks hit than miss.
Fred Johnson helps O-line...."UNLIKELY"....There are a bunch of UDFA's playing in the NFL, but when you look at the hundreds that are signed each year the odds of finding a good starter are slim. Sample size last year against two weak defenses is not enough on which to judge him.
Geno sucks..."UNLIKELY"....Geno may never be the All-Pro force he has been in the past, but he is still a very good DT. His stats dropped off but his fellow NFL players voted him to the Pro Bowl. The reasonable position is that he will start to decline like any DT his age, but still play well this year.
William Jackson sucks..."UNLIKELY"....Two words "Contract Year". We have all seen him play well, he is still young, and as far as I know, 100% healthy.
Higgins stars..."UNLIKELY"...At least not as a rookie. But chances are good that he eventually develops into a productive WR
Pratt and Jordan improve..."LIKELY"....Sophomore slump usually occurs when a player overachieves as a rookie and the league adjusts to him. I don't think that will be an issue with Pratt and Jordan. Both should improve with a years experience. The question is how much?
Green returns to star level..."UNLIKELY"...I know there are rare exceptions to the rule, but a WR the age of Green with back to back season ending injuries very rarely returns to old level.
Ross stays healthy..."UNLIKELY"....2014 Microfracture surgery right knee, 2015 missed entire season with ACL and meniscus damage in left knee, 2017 missed opening game with knee injury ended season on IR with shoulder injury, 2019 missed 8 games with shoulder injury.
Coaches good..."UNLIKELY"...before you blow your top remember that I am not giving my opinion. I am just looking at the resumes of the guys on the staff. None of them have had ever even started an NFL season as a coordinator before 2019. Zac went to a Super Bowl but as a position coach, and no one else on his staff has won anything anywhere. But the book is still out and just like everything else on this list it could go either way. either way.
