05-27-2020, 01:25 PM
(05-27-2020, 01:01 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: As I said previously, I was responding to the notion, at least as I interpreted it, that an extension was just impossible because his signing bonus itself would have to be more than 18.5 million. So I was throwing out some round numbers just to say no, it's not like we'd have to take on unacceptable risk in future years.I tried to read through this, and while I can appreciate the effort, all these numbers are starting to make my head hurt.
And with all due respect, it appears your counter was to pose a scenario where he earns 5 million extra in incentives and in the process of doing so we can't cut him. Why would you want to cut a guy that made the incentives structured into his contract? I'm sure our front office is savvy enough to not put incentives in a contract that if met, the player still wasn't worth keeping around. That's the whole point of incentives. Incentives are the opposite of guarantees, and unless I misunderstand you here, you seem to be treating them the same.
If we did something like the deal I outlined, and he's either hurt all year or obviously in decline, we've spent 14m of cap space on him (less than we're schedule for right now) in 2020, and yes we'd be scheduled for another 8m in 2021. Cutting him before the season means we save around 10m but eat 8m. Your point is either that a) that's an unacceptable level of risk - in which case we just fundamentally disagree. I think that's okay for arguably the second best player in the history of our franchise. Or b) you're imagining that we'd keep him and he'd be mediocre and earn another 5m and then we'd cut him, in which case I just don't understand your rationale at all.
I'm not going to try to get into AJ's head and figure out what he'd accept. It depends on how serious he is about playing with one franchise (ala Fitzgerald), what he thinks his chances of staying healthy are, lots of things. But negotiations are all about finding a structure that works for both sides. Here's a structure that I think might be reasonable (if you don't agree with the numbers fiddle with them all you want):
3 years, 10.5m signing bonus.
2020: 10 million base salary fully guaranteed. AJ takes home 20.5m, more than he's schedule to make under his current tag.
2021: 1 million roster bonus due the third day of the new league year (or make it more if you want). 10 million base, not guaranteed. This basically guarantees that we don't do him like we did Andy and hold onto him deep into the summer. We either cut him in the first wave of free agency or not at all. Plus 2-3 million in incentives.
2022: Same as 2021.
From our perspective: It's a risk/reward trade off. The reward is that we hold his rights for 3 years if he plays well and we want to keep him. The incentives would be structured so that we'd basically have him at market value. And his 2020 cap number is lower. The risk is that we'd be on the hook for 7 million in 2021 and we'd have to cut him prior to the third day of the 2021 league year, but honestly I think we'd be ready to make that decision by then anyway. (or cut him after that and eat 8m, but that would be dumb).
From AJ's perspective: Worst case scenario is that the team decides to cut him after 2020, in which case he still made more money than he would under the tag. He goes to free agency in a timely fashion, just as he would if he plays this year out on the tag. Or the team pays the roster bonus more or less locking him in, in which case he has the market deal with the Bengals that he wants anyway. To some degree based on those incentives, sure, but that's part of the same negotiation process true of any player. My point is it's not somehow harder in AJ's case.
Bengals have the same decision to make in 2022, except that we'd only eat 3.5m.
I'm just going to try to boil down my stance as simply as possible...
I don't think an extra 3.5 mil in guaranteed money is enough to make AJ Green want to give up his rights for another 2 seasons. Not unless the a number of the incentives you mentioned are essentially built in guarantees. Not all of them, but some. He's not going to give up controlling rights for 2 additional seasons at 10 mil base without some easy to reach incentives. It makes no sense.
We can go around and around on the numbers forever. To be honest, I'm not really sure it matters all that much. AJ Green is going to want serious concessions and guarantees to extend beyond a year. If you're for commiting to that now then more power to you. I just don't see where the savings and benefit are coming from in doing so.
