NFL's 4th and 15 proposal and the Bengals

[jfkbengals]

(05-29-2020, 12:39 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Two huge issues with this rule had it been implemented:

1.) The success rate for onsides kicks, prior to the new rules, still only had a 15-20% success rate.  It's supposed to be extremely unlikely to be a success.  I won't go so far as to call it a miracle, or equal to that of a Hail Mary, but I do think it's almost in the same vain.  

When you successfully recover an onsides kick it should be a BIG deal.  Like, "Holy Crap, we actually recovered!".  And it should be difficult.  Another team has probably spent 55-59 mintutes slowly building their advantage.  It shouldn't be easily erased by a single play.

Converting a 4th and 15 doesn't feel all that special to me.  And I feel like the success rate would nearly double (30-40%), given the team going for it.  Which brings me to point 2....

2.) The rule would be certain teams at a huge advantage.  If you're a team that has a sub-par QB, or maybe your run focused, and/or defensively minded, your odds of completing a 15 yard pass are not going to be at all equal to a team with a stud QB and gobs of weapons.

The onsides kick really gave a pretty equal chance of success across the 32 teams.  But with the new rule, a team like Chiefs or the Saints might have a 40% chance of success, where a team like the Jags or the Panthers might have a 20% chance.  That doesn't strike me as incredibly fair.

Just my 2 cents...

Your first point was what I was discussing earlier.  It shouldn't be as hard as it is now, but it shouldn't be an easy feat. 

An onside kick makes you cover sideline to sideline, but only within 10-15 yards of the LOS.  And you can generally cheat to which half of the field you want to focus on.  4th and 15 from the 25 leaves you covering sideline to sideline and 75 yards deep.  The conversion rate would definitely be better than it has ever been for an onside kick.