05-29-2020, 09:11 PM
(05-29-2020, 01:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Until the rule changes in 2018 the success rate of an "expected" on-side kick was around 20%.
Over the last 5 years the conversion rate on 4th and 15+ is 17%.
Pretty much identical.
That's also because it is 4th and 15. Calling this proposal "4th" is a bit off, as there was not 3 downs before it. They had to go through three downs of failures, including a penalty to get to 4th and 15. What percentage of plays go for 15 plus yards? How often is it 4th and 15 and the game isn't on the line and they just punt it away instead of attempting it? How many times is a 1st, 2nd or 3rd and 15+ converted.
