How much did our defense really improve in second half of last season

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(06-05-2020, 12:42 AM)fredtoast Wrote: First of all, it is true that the teams we faced in the second half had weaker offenses, but not by that much.  The league average for yards gained was 347.9.  Our first eight opponents averaged 353.6 which was 5.7 yards above average and would have ranked 15th.  The eight opponents in the second half averaged 333.4 for the season.  That was almost 15 yards below the league average and would have ranked 24th.  Worse than the first half but not by a lot compared to how much our defense improved.

When you look at the two different halfs and measure them based on opponents offense it is clear that the Defense improved significantly over the second half.  Over the first 8 games the defense was allowing opponents to gain 82 yards above their per game average.  Over the second half the defense allowed opponenets only 18 yards more than they usually gained. Still below average, but a great improvement over the first half trainwreck.

This is where standard deviation needs to be brought into the analysis. I'm not saying your analysis is wrong - I actually have no opinion on that. But what I do know is that you can't calculate a bunch of averages and then just try to eyeball what is significant and what is not. I bolded the points where you did that. 
Again, to be clear, you did solid work here and you may well be right. I'm just trying to point out why I would take this with a grain of salt.