06-09-2020, 02:04 PM
(06-09-2020, 12:51 PM)Whatever Wrote: So, you keep harping on target quality, but a 70 some slot difference in target quality equated to a 4-6% difference on catch % using your sample players. That would've equated to 4 more catches and 50-some yards over the course of last year. He would not have had this massive jump in production with similar target quality. We're talking one more catch every 3 games.
His inability to get out of his breaks is obvious on his tape. Watch all the times he struggles to get to the boundary on his out routes and tell me he gets out of his breaks well.
Rounding off an out on the boundary is not going to cause a high and behind throw. The QB is throwing to a spot on the sideline. The receiver is supposed to break after a set number of steps and his route is supposed to intersect the ball's trajectory just before the chalk. Most commonly, WR's that round off their out carry the route too far upfield. That results in throws that seem wide because the ball went oob a yard or two in front of him.
Draw an X and Y axis. Pick a point on X and and a point on Y and draw a line between them, continuing the line past the Y axis. Now pick a point slightly further up the Y axis and look where your line is relative to the new point. The "ball" is "out of bounds", right? You're blaming the QB for Tate's poor route running.
Target quality is not catchable balls. Target quality is properly placed balls not just catchable. The point being they all caught similar amounts of catchable balls but in terms of production Tate's lacked because of the quality of the ball placement to him. Target quality is absolutley tied to the ability to add RAC.
As to your "Football" analysis, none of it is actually true. What about it is "obvious on tape"? The ball on an out route shouldn't be thrown at the sideline it should be placed 1-2 outside of the stem on the outside shoulder. He shouldn't be "getting to the boundary" to make the catch at all. Now if you are talking a comeback like what AJ often ran with Dalton you'd be a little more accurate in where that ball should be placed in relation to the boundary.
This 100% causes routes to be behind and high. The reason is when you round a route off you are usually a yard or two shallow of the expected stem. The QB will start his delivery at the expected top of your stem and work laterally off that stem for the targeted location. When the targeted location is behind your path the receiver tends to find themselves further along their path because they starter working laterally at or before the start of the QB delivery. This same thing happens on slants for WR's as well, but he doesn't have the issue with slants. Bottom line, balls are wide because they are late or simply inaccurate, not because he is "slow out of his break".
