Winning vs. Rushing yards allowed on defense

[Essex Johnson]

(06-08-2020, 01:18 PM)Au165 Wrote: There is a difference between correlation versus causation so you have to be careful with things like this. Lapham always used to spout off a horrible stat about Bengals "win x percentage when they run 25 times or more in a game". What that fails to contextualize is that if you are winning you most likely are running to bleed clock not that necessarily that running put you in that position to win. The inverse is true as well in that if you are winning, and especially by a greater margin, most teams will need to abandon their run to try and catch up. By the other team abandoning their run you have artificially improved your rushing defensive statistics.

Not saying that good run defense isn't tied to team success, but we have to go a lot deeper into situational stats and other stats that are adjusted for game situations to know if it a circumstance of being up versus simply good defense.

I am not sure i totally buy your causation also.. since a team could be winning because they are able to gain first downs rushing. which also can accout for rushing 25 times or more.. and in most NFL games a team is normally within 1 to 2 scores going into 4th quarter so it is usually not till late in the game a team winning just abandons the passing game.  Another theory is if you are stopping the run you are mostly giving your team more possessions which can give you a better percentage of scoring..