06-24-2020, 12:21 PM
For those that feel Joe should match Andy's win total in year 1 (9 wins) for it to be considered a success, I think you really need to look at the big picture. Using a win total, and only a win total, as a measure for QB performance isn't at all practical. Obviously this is a team game, and obviously there is only so much Burrow can control and be held responsible for.
So lets take a look at look at a few things that surrounded Andy in 2011, that are not a direct reflection of his ability or success as QB.
-The defense in 2011 ranked 7th in yards allowed.
-The defense in 2011 ranked 9th in points allowed.
-The defense in 2011 ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed.
-Using metrics on PFO, the 2011 special teams group ranked 7th.
-The running back group in 2011 rushed for 1,547 yards. For comparison: 2019 = 1,307, 2018 = 1,413, 2017 = 1,200, 2016 = 1,510.
-The 2011 team featured an in his prime Andrew Whitworth, an in his prime Andre Smith, and Bobbie Williams. All of who would start on this 2020 roster.
-The 2011 team featured Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden at the helm of their respective sides of the ball. The 2020 team features Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo. (TBD....)
Why am I poiting these things out? Because all of them need to be accounted for when you consider or try to explain why 2011 was what it was (A 9 win season).
If you want to judge the TEAM on a win total this is more than fair. If you want to assign a pre-determined benchmark, or compare season A vs season B, then that makes perfect sense. But when you start using a team stat to define the success of an individual player then it becomes entirely unfair.
Andy Dalton's TEAM went 9-7 and had a pretty successful season. This is true. He threw 3,338 yards, had a 58.1% completion %, and had 20 TD's vs 13 INT's. Good for a respectable 80.4 rating. This is also true.
Now let's post a hypothetical season for Joe Burrow and the Bengals in 2020, and then really compare the two:
Joe and the Bengals go 7-9. The defense ranks 14th (vs. 7th in 2011), the special teams ranks 16th (vs. 7th in 2011), and Joe throws for 3,900 yards with 27 TD's and 13 INT's, with a 63 completion %, and a 89 QB rating.
He lost two more games than Andy. But he threw over 500 more yards, with 7 more TD's, a 5% higher completion %, and a 9 pt higher QB rating. Are you really going to say Andy had the more successful season just because his team won 2 more games? Couldn't that be explained by the differences surrounding him?
If Joe Burrow gets a 7th ranked defense, a 7th ranked special teams, a run game that produces more yards than in any of the others in the last 5 years, and he gets comparible OL play, then and only then can I think you judge him on wins.
It seems "some people" go out of their way to place unreasonable expectations on Joe Burrow. It's almost as if they want to see him fail. "Some people" hold him soley responsible for the teams success. "Some people" expect him throw for 4000 yards and 40 TD's in year 1. "Some people" expect the playoffs immediately, despite the fact this team is coming off a franchise worst 2 wins, and 4 straight losing seasons.
Let me tell you something: "Some people" have agendas. "Some people" are butthurt Andy is gone so they throw out these numbers like demands, in order for them to feel ok that we've moved on. "Some people" need to get over it, and give this kid a fair shake. Cuz none of this is at all fair or objective. It's nonsense.
So lets take a look at look at a few things that surrounded Andy in 2011, that are not a direct reflection of his ability or success as QB.
-The defense in 2011 ranked 7th in yards allowed.
-The defense in 2011 ranked 9th in points allowed.
-The defense in 2011 ranked 10th in rushing yards allowed.
-Using metrics on PFO, the 2011 special teams group ranked 7th.
-The running back group in 2011 rushed for 1,547 yards. For comparison: 2019 = 1,307, 2018 = 1,413, 2017 = 1,200, 2016 = 1,510.
-The 2011 team featured an in his prime Andrew Whitworth, an in his prime Andre Smith, and Bobbie Williams. All of who would start on this 2020 roster.
-The 2011 team featured Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden at the helm of their respective sides of the ball. The 2020 team features Brian Callahan and Lou Anarumo. (TBD....)
Why am I poiting these things out? Because all of them need to be accounted for when you consider or try to explain why 2011 was what it was (A 9 win season).
If you want to judge the TEAM on a win total this is more than fair. If you want to assign a pre-determined benchmark, or compare season A vs season B, then that makes perfect sense. But when you start using a team stat to define the success of an individual player then it becomes entirely unfair.
Andy Dalton's TEAM went 9-7 and had a pretty successful season. This is true. He threw 3,338 yards, had a 58.1% completion %, and had 20 TD's vs 13 INT's. Good for a respectable 80.4 rating. This is also true.
Now let's post a hypothetical season for Joe Burrow and the Bengals in 2020, and then really compare the two:
Joe and the Bengals go 7-9. The defense ranks 14th (vs. 7th in 2011), the special teams ranks 16th (vs. 7th in 2011), and Joe throws for 3,900 yards with 27 TD's and 13 INT's, with a 63 completion %, and a 89 QB rating.
He lost two more games than Andy. But he threw over 500 more yards, with 7 more TD's, a 5% higher completion %, and a 9 pt higher QB rating. Are you really going to say Andy had the more successful season just because his team won 2 more games? Couldn't that be explained by the differences surrounding him?
If Joe Burrow gets a 7th ranked defense, a 7th ranked special teams, a run game that produces more yards than in any of the others in the last 5 years, and he gets comparible OL play, then and only then can I think you judge him on wins.
It seems "some people" go out of their way to place unreasonable expectations on Joe Burrow. It's almost as if they want to see him fail. "Some people" hold him soley responsible for the teams success. "Some people" expect him throw for 4000 yards and 40 TD's in year 1. "Some people" expect the playoffs immediately, despite the fact this team is coming off a franchise worst 2 wins, and 4 straight losing seasons.
Let me tell you something: "Some people" have agendas. "Some people" are butthurt Andy is gone so they throw out these numbers like demands, in order for them to feel ok that we've moved on. "Some people" need to get over it, and give this kid a fair shake. Cuz none of this is at all fair or objective. It's nonsense.
