Is the Henry deal enough for Mixon?

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-17-2020, 04:08 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Again this is like listing 10 lottery winners and then claiming lottery tickets are a good investment.

There are as many UDFA as first round picks because there have been HUNDREDS of more UDFAs than first round picks.  You can't just look at the few success and ignore the hundreds of failures.

The fact is that over the last decade (2010-2019) there were 217 RBs drafted after the first round and only 14 of them rushed for more yards in their career than Mixon has after just three seasons (2931).  And those 14 include guys like Giovani Bernard and Bilal Powell who never rushed for as much as 800 yards in a season.

It's really not anything like the lottery at all, Fred, but keep saying it and I am sure it'll be true eventually.

Total rushing yards is a worthless stat without any context:
Jeremy Hill rushed for 2,757 yards in his first 3 seasons.
Joe Mixon rushed for 2,931 yards in his first 3 seasons.

Nobody was saying in the 2016-2017 offseason that Hill should be getting a $7m+/yr extension.

Also, LOL... from 2010-2019... so you're including 2 years of drafts that haven't even played as long as Mixon to make your argument. "This guy drafted in 2019 hasn't gotten as many yards in 1 year as Mixon did in 3!" Seriously Fred?

(07-17-2020, 04:15 PM)fredtoast Wrote: In 2018 Saquan Barkley was the only RB in the league with more runs of 20+ yards than Mixon.  Barkley and Nick Chubb were the only RBs with more runs of 40+ yards.

So Mixon actually has the ability to break off more long runs than most other RBs in the league.  He just has not gotten those runs when he was within 20 yards of the end zone.  It has nothing to do with ability or else other RBs would be getting a lot more long runs.  It is just a statistical fluke.

Except he's finished 0 of those runs for TDs, which is what he and I were both talking about. It's not a statistical fluke when he's at 693 carries and 0 of them have been even 20+ yard TDs. That's a proper sample size.

You also conveniently (in typical Fred fashion) neglected to mention that in the other 2 years he's played combined he has exactly 1 rush of 40+ yards (and only 8 of 20+ yards). 2018 was the outlier thus far and even then he couldn't finish those runs for TDs.