1st Waiver add Position

[Whatever]

(08-31-2020, 07:47 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I am just using Pro Football Reference's advanced stats to determine broken tackles. Hence why the numbers are only for the last two years (when they started tracking it).

Counting straight broken tackles and saying he's 17th is pointless. Same reason why straight YAC isn't great either. Getting a ton of opportunities doesn't mean you're doing a good job with those opportunities. It's the same reason why as long as they both have a decent amount of carries, YPC is a far better indicator of quality than total rushing yards.

Jerome Bettis 1999: 299 rushes/1,091 yards (3.6 YPC)
Nick Chubb 2018: 192 rushes/996 yards (5.2 YPC)

The rates almost always give a better picture than the total counting stats (so long as you're keeping to a minimum to filter out the real small sample sizes).

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The YAC/Carry is a good stat, though. It does means while he doesn't break many tackles, at least he makes it hurt when he does.

I firmly disagree that his OL has been worse than the Bengals over the last 3 years. I refuse to believe that anyone's OL has been worse than the Bengals over the last 3 years.

If you put any stock in PFF grades, this is from 2019....

Bengals OL, min 33% offensive snaps:
Hopkins (62.4)
Hart (57.6)
Miller (58.6)
Jordan (43.7)
Jerry (55.6)
Price (41.9)

Jaguars OL, min 33% offensive snaps:
J Taylor (63.7)
Norwell (65.5)
Linder (75.3)
Robinson (54.8)
Cann (55.3)
Richardson (43.0)

Neither are particularly good, but the Jags are still much better. At least they had 3 starting quality OL including one good one. The Bengals had 1. The Bengals best OL last year was still worse than three of the Jag's OL. That's pretty bad.

I'm all on board that Fournette didn't have a ton of surrounding talent in the skill department. Never disputed that, but to say he's had a worse OL than the Bengals for the last 3 years is something that simply can't be said.

Fournette only had 1.4 Yards Before Contact per Carry last year, 5th worst in the league.  That indicates defenders are on top of him quick.  By comparison, Mixon had 1.8 YBC/C last year.  I use Joe as a comparison because he's someone we've all watched play a lot and fans routinely complain about him getting hit in the backfield all the time and making something out of nothing.  

PFF is a decent tool.  The problem is, overall player ratings is not the same as their run blocking grades, which is what is pertinent to this discussion.  In Profootballoutsiders OL ranks, the Bengals OL ranks higher in run blocking, but the Jags are rated higher in pass blocking.  PFF grades on OL are weighted more towards pass blocking because you basically have to pancake a guy to get a positive grade on a run play in their system.  Most times, players just get a neutral 0 grade unless they were exceptionally bad or good.

I'm not saying Fournette is an elite RB by any stretch.  However, he could be very effective in a timeshare and could be a season saver if Joe can't go.