I've Got Something to Say

[*SHRacerX*]

(10-21-2015, 11:29 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: And here's where the disconnect lies.  While you have thought that he's been average or above all along, or in entirety, someone like myself will be quick to remind you of last year.  Now I guess you can choose to debate that idea, but I'm not sure you can just gloss over it and it attribute it to blind hate either.

Just from a number standpoint, here's where he's ranked in QB rating in each of his 4 years:

2011 (Rookie Year) - 20
2012 - 13
2013 - 15
2014 - 25

Composite average - 18

Now, I don't really feel like I actually engaging in an actual debate about the worth of these numbers along with the relevance of rookie seasons, injuries, loads of talent, loss of talent, playcalling, etc.  The only point of this is to illustrate that the idea that he has always been average or above is simply not true.  He was nowhere near average last year.  Not from a rating standpoint, not from a yardage standpoint, nor from a TD or INT standpoint.

Without overcomplicating my stance let me just say that my opinion has always come primarily from simply watching the game.  Numbers aside, what I saw shaped my opinion.  And that opinion was that Andy Dalton was an average at best QB, who at times was elevated by above average talent around him.  That was my take. 

I currently think, while some of his atributes are far from elite, he is making up for that with stellar decision making.  I've seen him numerous time make the smart play, that many QB's in this league don't make.  I think he seems more poised and patient in the pocket.  I also get the impression that he's just all together more confidence and comfortable in the pocket.  He has made a leap that I didn't think he was capable of making.  I've never seen this level of play sustained for than a couple of games.  Until now.

While I certainly don't think I was wrong on everything I've said or thought previously, and I think I was fair, I was wrong on Andy's ceiling.  He is currently proving me wrong on that.  As well as he is proving me wrong the decision to give him an early deal.

The problem I have with using stats or simple "rankings" for a QB is that they will pull out one or two specific measures that either support our counter another argument.  I'm not sure if that rank is QB rating, QBR, etc.  It doesn't really matter because it only takes a small handful of things in to effect.  What if I replied with win totals over the past four year?  Top 4-5 I would think.  Or what about that "uncommon opponents" stat they showed before the Buffalo game?  The win/loss for teams outside your division?  He was something crazy like 23-4?  Yes, over the past four years he has played in the toughest division in football.  Brady and Luck play in divisions where 6 wins was nearly a given. 

And I strongly agree with WHO DEY WHO that so much of the disdain for Dalton has been the playoff performances.  Which, I agree with the vast majority, that he played poorly in the first two.  I will not kill him for his performances in the third and fourth game whatsoever. 

The bottom line(as you stated) is simply watching him play and comparing him to others that you watch play.   I have seen him make bad mistakes, and I have seen him make incredible plays.  I hear arm strength questioned, but I never see that when I watch him play.  Each year, he has shown a steady improvement over the previous year, with the exception being the first year with Hue which was also a MASH unit of injuries.  He has continued upon the trajectory that he had displayed the first three seasons.  Watching the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Ryan Tannehill (those that are closest to him in terms of experience), I see Dalton making better decisions and overall playing the position better than any of them.  It isn't even close.  I think his single greatest achievement this season is that he has seemingly overcome his AJ addiction, where he would force the ball to him when he wasn't open.  Matt Stafford has yet to figure this out. 

I don't blame people for not wanting to anoint him the next great QB since there have been great runs in the past, only to suffer huge disappointments later.  And, yes, it is only six games.  It doesn't matter if people are "all in" or not, and nationally the tag line (almost, but not quite as tired as "six rings") will be their playoff history until they change that.

I think Mo Egger nailed it when he described the 1990 Cincinnati Reds team that went wire-to-wire.  The Reds had not done much of anything for a long time.  They had a young team that started strong and was exciting to watch.  He brought up specific things about that season:  The Nasty Boys, the 9-0 start, Lou Pinella launching a base in to the outfield, etc.  He described the pure joy of that season (it is my favorite Reds team also) and how much he would have missed out on if he would have just said "well, they won't continue this" or "they will get killed in the playoffs". 

Everyone is entitled to their opinions about Dalton.  I would just hope that everyone would actually enjoy what is happening rather than waiting for the other shoe to drop.