Jeremy Hill far ahead of his production last year

[BFritz21]

(10-25-2015, 09:26 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Many teams run more shotgun than under center even on first and second down.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/fo-basics




Clearly, NFL teams have figured the importance of the Shotgun out for themselves. In 2001, NFL teams only used Shotgun on 14 percent of plays. Five years later, in 2006, that had increased slightly, to 20 percent of plays. Shotgun usage has risen steadily since then, shattering the halfway point in 2013 (when NFL teams used Shotgun 59 percent of the time) and then creeping over the 60 percent threshold in 2014. Before 2007, no team had ever used Shotgun on more than half its offensive plays. In 2014, 26 different teams used Shotgun over 50 percent of the time,led by Philadelphia which used Shotgun on an NFL-record 86 percent of plays. (That was actually a very slight decline for Philadelphia, from 86.0 percent in 2013 to 85.6 percent last year.) It is likely that if teams continue to increase their usage of the Shotgun, defenses will adapt and the benefit of the formation will become less pronounced. But it certainly isn't happening yet; the difference between success on Shotgun and non-Shotgun plays in 2001 was bigger than in 2008, 2009, or 2010.

It doesn't matter if many teams are doing it, the fact of the matter remains that Jeremy Hill is better suited with Andy under center.

(10-25-2015, 09:27 PM)fredtoast Wrote: No it isn't

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/fo-basics



Over the past five seasons, offenses have averaged 5.8 yards per play from Shotgun (not counting the Wildcat or other college-style option plays), but just 5.0 yards per play with the quarterback under center. This wide split exists even if you analyze the data to try to weed out biases like teams using Shotgun more often on third-and-long, or against prevent defenses in the fourth quarter. Shotgun offense is more efficient if you only look at the first half, on every down, and even if you only look at running back carries rather than passes and scrambles.

Look at the top ten backs in the league and see that almost all of them, even if some have a higher YPC, run better from a lone setback or an I formation.  The top backs are only running a third or fourth of the time, if that, from the shotgun, meaning that it's a much smaller sample size to evaluate from.  Teams line-up with the QB under center to run the ball because it's easier to establish the run that way.

Shotgun might be good to switch it up occasionally, but it doesn't play to Hill's strengths.

Like I said, the eye test proves that.