10-23-2020, 03:35 PM
(10-23-2020, 02:08 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I totally get that.
Bengals have 26 players set to hit FA, most of which are depth players. The only starting caliber players are:
- Green
- WJ3
- Lawson
- Alexander
- Bynes
Then add the ST guys in there:
- Bullock
- Huber
- Harris
- Wilson (KR)
- Erickson (PR)
That's 10 players that would need to be replaced. Although Green's spot will be taken by Higgins, Alexander's spot can be filled by Phillips, and Bynes can be replaced by Wilson, so only depth guys may be needed. Phillips can cover KR, even though I really like Wilson in that role.
Moving on from Dunlap and/or Atkins would add another 1-2 if it happens.
The Bengals will have 7 draft picks, more if they do trades.
They also have some guys on the PS potentially worth bringing up, and can also fill a back-end depth position with a UDFA.
All I'm saying is it doesn't make sense to sign even 20 of the Bengals FAs back, and the Bengals will be able to replace up to 7 of those spots with draft picks.
If Dunlap and Atkins are off the books, that gives them another $25 mill in cap to use for others. Personally, given they got 2 big-priced FAs last season with Waynes and Reader, I'd put the extra cap toward offense. Have two early-round picks go to DL to replace Dunlap and Atkins on the roster. DT would be the bigger starter need IMO whereas DE could be Hubbard and Lawson (assuming he is re-signed) with a rotational pass rusher drafted in Rd 3 or 4. Tupou will be back next year, so they could technically could put Tupou at NT and Reader at UT, thereby not requiring a new DT draft pick to have to see 70%+ snaps.
I think they need to re-sign WJIII and Lawson. Otherwise they'd need a high draft pick to replace their production at what are both premium positions.
One of the first two picks needs to be on O-line, along with a stud free agency signing that should be enough to solidify the O-line. The other first/second round pick would need to be on the D-line. Maybe the back-up free agent could be a Edge rebound candidate - sort of like when they looked at Shaq Barrett a few years ago - and they draft pick an interior pass rusher to succeed Geno?
AJ, Alexander are easier to replace as 3rd WR and 3rd cornerback respectively and you could maybe find a mid-round speed receiver and a slot corner but there are other needs to consider there as well. Safety is a huge need if you let both Shawn Williams and Brandon Wilson go as there's no depth there. You probably want to try and retain Brandon Wilson for STs anyway. He and the rest of the teams specialists shouldn't be particularly expensive and I'd look to retain them all except Erickson. If you're letting AJ Green, Ross and Erickson go then you probably re-sign Mike Thomas for depth. Higgins, Boyd, mid-round draft pick, Tate, Thomas, Morgan and maybe an extra FA. I think WR is a good position to target in FA because of the Burrow factor. Try and find a rebound candidate who wants to rebuild their value on a one year deal with Burrow throwing to them. Not only can they give you value for a year but if they succeed you get a nice compensatory pick at the end of it.
Other positions I'd like to address in the mid-rounds are TE, CB and O-line depth. Uzomah is expensive and injured which is a bad combination - might this be a good area to target in FA with the Burrow factor as well? We should get a look at Adeniji before the end of the year it would help if he was a viable back-up at OT but a swing tackle is probably required. CB badly needs some depth. They'll probably have to re-sign Sims for that reason but they should be looking for some developmental prospects at CB for the longer term anyway.
That means if they can move Green/Ross/Erickson/Dunlap/Atkins/S Williams/Alexander before the trade deadline then they need to do so, even if it involves eating salary. They need the extra draft capital to fill some more of those holes. Draftees will be cheaper than FA signings and will fit better into our window (FAs will generally be declining by Burrow's 3rd and 4th years; draft picks should be ascending by then).
Of course this assumes that suitable options are there in both FA and the draft and I haven't looked at names nor what positions are strong for either. It still feels like that would be largely running to stand still. We're a long way off being able to use the draft for BPA, which is what we should be using FA to put us in a position to do.
