11-23-2020, 11:47 AM
(11-23-2020, 10:35 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: That's true. There are cumulative injuries and there are, for lack of a better term, "freak injuries."
The thing about freak injuries is that they have a chance of occurring on every play. It's usually very small. Let's say there's a 0.0001% chance of a freak injury on any given passing play. Having an awful offensive line would increase that chance and having the other factors I mentioned (like having no running game at all) could increase that chance a bit more.
When you call over 400 passing plays in the first 10 games of a season, you are riding those odds every single play.
So for the first 399 plays, the bad Oline+no run game+rookies don't get calls from refs+defensive players like to teach rookies a lesson chance of having a freak accident didn't occur.
But when you roll a dice over and over and over again, eventually you're going to roll the number you've been fretting.
Do you know what I mean?
This bothers me in many aspects of life, as people commonly misunderstand how statistics and probability works. You do realize that, using your .0001% figure, for every one of those 400 plays, the percentage chance would still be that .0001% right? If you were to coach with that mentality, you're playing to not lose, which I believe is one of those lies we like to say Zac's doing. But of course, it must fit our agenda right?
