Draft Madness

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

Well, that Tenn loss helped us in a way. We now have a weaker SOS than Philly. The sites I looked at had us picking before Philly even while our SOSs were even, not sure why. If that is accurate, we almost assuredly would pick before them if we finish tied. Why?

Well, since it is the last weekend, with all division foes playing each other, there is very little movement in terms of SOS. Example: we played the AFC South & NFC East this year. Those teams must go 4-4 as they all play each other. Same thing for Philly who played the NFC West and AFC North. Likewise, the divisional games both teams are not involved in (Pitt at CLE & Dallas vs NY) guarantee a 1-1 record for their opponents for Cincy & Philly.

Now, the results of their own games will effect the draft position. If one team loses while the other wins, then that settles it, SOS is not a factor. If the teams match each other's results, then their opponents' results are the same. So for SOS purposes, those games can't effect it either if SOS comes into play.

The only results that could swing SOS are the results for the two odd teams on the schedule. For us, Miami (at Buffalo) and SD (at KC). For Philly, Green Bay (at Chicago) and New Orleans (at Carolina). GB and NO both can still get the #1 seed, so I would assume they go for it.

Plus, as I noted at the start, the sites I saw had us picking ahead of Philly when our SOS was even, if that is true, we'd need a 2 game flip (GB & NO both lose, Miami & SD both win) to happen for Philly to jump us if we tie.

Also, Goff may have broken his thumb vs Seattle today. If so, Rams seem unlikely to beat Arizona, which would mean TB is locked into #5, which means a bigger chance Brady sits or only plays briefly vs Atlanta.